清醒认识中国低生育率风险  

Be Aware of the Risk of Low Fertility in China

作　　者：郭志刚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心 [2]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2015年第2期100-119,7,共20页International Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国低生育率研究"(项目批准号:12JJD840005)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：中国人口少子化和老龄化的发展速度和程度显著超出以往预期。面对少子化、老龄化的人口新常态,人口领域需要有较大的改革。当前人口工作思路存在与人口现实之间的种种矛盾,问题的核心是对低生育风险缺乏足够清醒的认识,人口工作存在只重当下、罔顾未来的偏向。生育政策调整的实质是对过去计划生育过度的补救和改正,既是对生育率过低这一主要人口风险的应对,也是人口发展彻底转向正常化、均衡化的需要。China is facing a serious demographic situation given its low fertility and aging population.Therefore,its population policy needs be reformed.Currently,policymakers are yet to clearly understand the real demographic situation.The core problem is the lack of thorough understanding of the risk of low fertility so that policymakers are short-sighted and cannot anticipate the future development trend.The reform of the family planning policy,in essence,is a remedy for the excessive population control in the past.It copes with the main risk of low fertility and also helps the country normalize and balance its demographic development.

关 键 词：人口形势 人口战略 低生育率风险 生育政策调整 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]