烟酸粉尘云爆炸极限的逻辑回归分析  

Logistic Regression Analysis of the Explosion Limit of Nicotinic Acid Dust Cloud

作　　者：刘庆明[1] 刘丽斌[1] 汪建平[1] 王斌[1] 张云明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《兵工学报》2015年第3期523-529,共7页Acta Armamentarii

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2011CB706904)

摘　　要：欧盟标准EN14034-3：2006、美国标准E1515和中国标准GB/T 16425-1996对粉尘云爆炸下限浓度测定方法的规定和要求各不相同,为更精确地研究粉尘云的爆炸下限,根据统计学的数据收集方式,在20 L球型爆炸装置中测试粒径为96 -113μm的烟酸粉尘云爆炸下限.基于Lo-gistic回归模型,利用SPSS统计软件得到烟酸粉尘云的爆炸下限概率-浓度分布曲线,实现对GB/T 16425-1996粉尘云爆炸下限浓度测定方法中粉尘云爆炸下限区间的量化,并分析了实验次数的不同对爆炸下限概率分布的影响规律.分析结果表明：爆炸下限概率为50％时,置信区间范围最窄,并且在实验次数不同时,其爆炸下限概率在该值处两边发展趋势不同.与现有粉尘云爆炸下限浓度测定方法得到的结果相比,以概率表示烟酸粉尘爆炸下限更符合实际情况,为企业安全生产标准提供精确的理论依据.The regulations and requirements of EN14034-3：2006[1], E1515[2] and GB/T 16425-1996[3] for the measurement methods of lower explosive limit concentration of dust cloud differ from each other. To more precisely research the lower explosive limit of dust cloud, the lower explosive limit of nia- cin dust with particle size of 96 -113 Ixm is test in 20 L spherical explosion test apparatus according to statistical data collection. Based on logistic regression model, the test results are analyzed using SPSS sta- tistical software to obtain the probability distributions for ignition versus dust concentrations of niacin dust. The scope of dust cloud explosion limit proposed in GB/T 16425--1996 dust cloud explosion limit concentration measurement method is quantified, the influences of different experimental times on the lower explosive limit probability distribution are analyzed. The analysis result shows that the range of the confidence interval is the narrowest with the lower explosive limit of the particularity of 50%. For differ- ent number of experiments, the trends of the lower explosive limit probability on both sides of the value are different. Compared with the results obtained by other dust cloud explosion limit concentration meas- urement methods, the lower explosive limit of niacin dust which is expressed in the probability is more in line with the actual situation.

关 键 词：爆炸力学 概率统计分析 烟酸粉尘 爆炸下限 LOGISTIC回归模型 

分 类 号：Q563.6[生物学—生物化学]