CPI与PPI“背离”的结构性解释  

A Structural Explanation on the “Divergence” Between the CPI and PPI

作　　者：吕捷[1] 王高望[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,100872 [2]山东大学经济研究院,250100

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第4期136-149,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(13XNJ027)资助

摘　　要：2000年以来中国的两大物价指数CPI、PPI出现了多次"背离"式增长。尤其是最近三年(2011—2013),CPI持续上涨而PPI连续下跌,这使得中央银行运用货币政策稳定物价水平的能力受到了极大限制。本文通过构建三部门动态随机一般均衡模型(Three—Sector DSGE),探讨了CPI与PPI背离的结构性原因。研究发现,央行采用的宽松货币政策一方面导致劳动力不断从基础农业部门流向加工服务部门,推动了加工服务部门的扩张和基础农业部门的收缩;另一方面使得CPI不断上涨而PPI在经历一个短期的上升以后开始不断下降,从而出现了CPI与PPI的阶段性"背离"。本文不仅较好地解释了CPI和PPI背离的结构性原因,同时也为央行制定更为有效的货币政策提供了一个新的视角。Since 2000, China＇s two major price indexes CPI and PPI have diverged for many times, especially in the last three years（2011--2013 ）. This inversion growth of the different price indexes has weakened the ability of the central bank to stabilize the aggregate price level. By constructing a three-sector DSGE model, we explore the structural causes of the divergence between the CPI and PPI. It is shown that the flow of labor among different sectors has promoted the expansion of the service sector and contraction in the agricultural sector. The CPI rose up while the PPI experienced a short-term rise and then began to decline, thus resulting in a ＂divergence＂ between the CPI and PPI. The three-sector model constructed in this paper is not only good at explaining the divergence betweenthe CPI and PPI, but also used for the study of the effectiveness of monetary policy under current China＇s dual economic structure.

关 键 词：CPI与PPI背离 货币政策 三部门模型 DSGE 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F726F822.0F224