财政支出、居民消费与经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的分析  

Fiscal Expenditure,Residents' Consumption and Economic Fluctuation:Based on the Analysis of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

作　　者：王玉凤[1] 肖宏伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部

出　　处：《科学决策》2015年第2期30-42,共13页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:70473043);对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金(项目编号:A2012004);对外经济贸易大学国内外联合培养研究生项目

摘　　要：在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中引入财政支出冲击和居民消费习惯,将财政支出分为生产性支出和消费性支出,分别纳入生产函数和总消费函数,通过DSGE模型模拟了财政支出对居民消费、产出、就业、投资等经济变量的动态影响。模拟结果显示财政支出增加对居民消费产生了挤出效应,而对产出、就业等经济变量产生挤入效应。考虑消费习惯后,经济变量对外生冲击的响应呈驼峰状,并且影响程度加大。因此,合理划分政府支出的类型并恰当评估居民的消费习惯对把握财政政策的操作力度甚为重要。This article analyzes the dynamic effect of fiscal expenditure on the residents’ consump-tion,output,employment and investment,fiscal expenditure is divided into productive expenditure and consumer expenditure,and then inserted into the production function and consumption func-tion respectively, based on DSGE model considering the government spending shock and residents’ consumption habit. The simulation results show that fiscal expenditure has a crowd-out effect on residents’ consumption and crowd-in effect on other economic variables. The influence of exogenous shocks on economic variables has hump shape considering spending habit,and in-creases the influence degree. Therefore, it is very important to divide the types of government spending and consider the consumption habit to grasp the operation of fiscal policy efforts.

关 键 词：财政支出 居民消费 经济波动 DSGE 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]