基于水文学与水力学方法的雅砻江水情预报模型  

A study of an extensive river forecasting model for Yalong River

作　　者：刘小龙[1,2] 施勇[2] 陈炼钢[2] 栾震宇[2] 虞美秀[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2015年第2期33-37,共5页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2013BAB05B03;2012BAB04B04;2013BAB12B03)

摘　　要：以雅砻江官地水库至河口为对象,建立一个基于水文学与水力学方法相耦合的水情预报模型。其中,官地水库出流作为模型入流边界,官地水库至二滩水库河道汇流采用马斯京根河道演算法模拟;官地水库至二滩水库区间入流采用基于栅格的新安江模型模拟,以使模拟结果具有一定的预见期;二滩水库按水库调度规则计算水库出流;二滩水库至河口对完全圣维南方程组采用一维非恒定流隐式差分求解,模拟出沿河道任意断面水情过程,从而使具有预见期的水文预报成果沿河道方向得到了延伸,实现了对二滩水库至河口段水情的精准预报和过程控制。采用2007—2009年日系列资料对模型进行严格的率定与验证后发现,小得石站最高水位的绝对误差均小于0.3 m,桐子林站最大流量的相对误差均小于10%,日模拟的确定性系数均高于0.989,高精度的模拟结果证实了模型的合理性和有效性。River forecasting and tracking is one of key technologies for developing waternet to prompt water utilization efficiency. Taking the region of Guandi reservoir-Ertan reservoir-estuary in the Yalong River basin as a case study site,the authors try to establish a river forecasting model based on the hydrological-hydraulic methods to forecast the water regime on the scales of time and space. In the model constructions,taking outflow of Guandi reservoir as inflow of the region,the Guandi-Ertan reservoir model uses the Muskingum method to route in the river channel and adopts the Xinanjiang model（ XAJ model） based on the use of a digital elevation model（ DEM） to make the model have a certain foreseeable period; for Ertan reservoir,the authors use its operation rules to get the outflow; and for the channel,from Ertan reservoir to estuary,one-dimension unsteady flow implicit difference scheme solution is adopted to simulate the absolute Saint Venant equations and obtain the hydrological processes of any cross-section along the river channel. So that,the hydrological forecasting results with a certain leading time have been extended on any cross-section of the river channel,and accurate forecasting and process controlling have been realized for the channel from the Ertan reservoir to estuary. The model is calibrated and validated strictly based on the daily hydrological data series from 2007 to 2009. The analysis results of this study show that the model performed very well with the absolute water level error of the Xiaodeshi station less than 0. 30 m,the relative error of daily flow obtained from the Tongzilin station less than 10%,and a coefficient of determination higher than 0.989. The findings from this research could provide an essential technical support for the construction of a digital Yalong River,and be used as a valuable technical and methodological reference for real-time regulating and process controlling of multi-water resources of the internet of water.

关 键 词：水情预报 新安江模型 非恒定流 雅砻江 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]