2015年中国蛋鸭产业市场研究与预测  

Forecast and Analysis of Laying Ducks Industry Market in China in 2015

作　　者：赵丽平[1] 王雅鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国家禽》2015年第6期33-36,共4页China Poultry

基　　金：国家水禽产业技术体系经济学研究专项(CARS-43-10B)

摘　　要：我国蛋鸭产业市场存在的生产波动、价格变动等问题对蛋鸭养殖、生产、销售等形成了巨大的市场危机,也影响了蛋鸭产业的健康可持续发展。利用现期能够采集的相关统计调研数据,通过ARIMA模型、二次曲线模型等分析预测模型对我国2015年蛋鸭出栏量、存栏量和蛋品价格等进行了预测分析,并提出蛋鸭产业市场健康发展的建议。The existing problems in the industry market of laying ducks,such as production and fluctuation price change,have caused a huge market crisis on the breeding,production,sales,which also affected the sustainable development of laying ducks industry. By using the current relevant statistical survey data,this paper made reasonable forecast and analysis on the slaughter and breeding stock of laying ducks,price of eggs in 2005 through ARMA model,quadratic curve model and so on,and put forward the recommendations for the healthy development of the laying ducks industry market.

关 键 词：蛋鸭产业 模型 预测分析 建议 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]