人民币实际汇率对工业产能利用率的影响  

Effect of RMB Real Exchange Rate on Industrial Capacity Utilization

作　　者：王自锋[1] 白玥明 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2015年第4期70-82,共13页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"新时期中国企业跨国经营战略与绩效研究"(批准号13JJD790016);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"对外直接投资支持体系:国际比较研究"(批准号12JJD790035)

摘　　要：中国工业的产能过剩问题体现着开放经济条件下外部因素的冲击特征。本文从人民币汇率的视角分析了开放经济条件下中国工业的产能过剩问题,检验了人民币实际汇率对中国工业产能利用率的系统影响及传导渠道。结果发现:中国工业产能利用率存在显著的滞后性;人民币实际汇率升值通过市场势力和进口渗透率两个渠道对中国工业尤其是重工业的产能利用率产生了显著的负向影响,但出口开放度渠道不具有稳定性和显著性;当国有企业比重增加时,人民币实际汇率升值对中国工业产能利用率的负向影响有所增强,但私营企业比重的作用方向相反,外资企业的影响效应尚不明确。为了化解工业产能过剩,可依托汇率政策调节工业产能利用率,同时配合实施严控新增投资、规避汇率风险、消除市场垄断以及促进海外投资等相关措施。China＇s industrial overcapacity issue embodies the characteristics of open economic conditions. This study investigates China＇s industrial overcapacity from a new perspective of the RMB exchange rate under open economy. The dynamic impacts of real RMB exchange rate change on industrial capacity utilization are evaluated empirically using 4-digit industry panel dataset. The main results are yielded： capacity utilization of industrial sector has an important lag effect; Real exchange rate appreciation of RMB has important negative effects on capacity utilization of industrial sectors through both market power and import penetration channels, while the effects are not consistent through export revenue channel; The increase of private enterprises and state-owned capital in industries can respectively enhance the positive and negative effects caused by real exchange appreciation, but the increase of FDI causes the uncertain consequence. In order to achieve the goal of solving the excess capacity, this paper suggests that government should rely on exchange rate policy to adjust industrial capacity utilization, and need to cooperate with relevant measures, such as strict controls of new investment, avoiding exchange rate risk, eliminating the market monopoly and promoting overseas investment.

关 键 词：实际汇率 产能利用率 重工业 所有制结构 

分 类 号：F424.1[经济管理—产业经济]