基于模糊物元的新疆伊犁河谷水库移民可持续生计评价研究  

Sustainable livelihoods evaluation of reservoir resettlement from Yili Valley based on fuzzy matter-element

作　　者：黄兴[1] 蒲春玲[1] 马旭[1] 闫志明[1] 刘志有[1] 魏振[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《浙江农业学报》2015年第3期477-483,共7页Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14XGL005);新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目(12BJL130)

摘　　要：为确立水库移民生计评价体系和量化标准系统,采用层次分析法和统计分析法并结合模糊物元模型对伊犁河谷水库移民可持续生计状况进行实证评价。结果表明,伊犁河谷水库移民的总体生计处于维持搬迁前的水平,离生计可持续目标还存在较大的差距,原因主要集中在经济基础和政策保障两方面。收入、土地产出、就业保障、职业技能水平和移民生活融入度对伊犁河谷水库移民生计的可持续发展有主要影响,因此,可以通过健全组织管理机构、增加移民认可度和完善后扶保障体系来实现伊犁河谷水库移民生计的可持续发展。To establish the livelihood evaluation system and quantitative standard of reservoir resettlement,the sustainable livelihoods of reservoir resettlement from Yili Valley was evaluated using fuzzy matter-element model,together with analytic hierarchy process and statistical analysis. The results showed that the livelihood of reservoir resettlement in Yili Valley was almost the same as before,and there was still a big gap from sustainable development,this was mainly caused by the economic base and policy guarantee. Then it could be concluded that income,land output,employment,occupation skill and the local life integration affect the sustainable development of reservoir resettlement. Finally,we can promote the sustainable livelihoods of reservoir resettlement in Yili Valley through improving the mechanism of reservoir resettlement management organization,increasing the acceptance and strengthening the security system of the late stage support.

关 键 词：伊犁河谷 水库移民 可持续生计评价 模糊物元模型 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]