TPP与RCEP贸易自由化经济效果的可计算一般均衡分析  

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Economic Effect of TPP and RCEP

作　　者：孟猛[1] 郑昭阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学经济学院,天津300378 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第4期67-75,共9页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZD036);天津社会科学研究规划资助项目(TJYY11-2-080)

摘　　要：运用CGE模型,对TPP和RCEP谈判最终三种结果对各成员国可能造成的影响进行评估。结果显示,如果RCEP和TPP均能在2015年达成全部商品贸易自由化,RCEP成员国和美国都能够从贸易自由化中获得较大的收益,并且从福利变化的角度看,中日韩三国获益较大;如果TPP建成而RCEP不能建成,美国获益最大,中国将会遭受巨大的负面冲击;如果RCEP建成而TPP没有建成,RCEP成员国的福利明显增加、GDP快速增长,其中尤其是中日韩三国的福利水平显著提高,而美国的福利水平恶化、GDP降低。因此,中国目前应重点推动RCEP的建设。Using the CGE model, the paper makes an analysis of the economic effect of TPP and RCEP on the members. The results indicate that all the members of RCEP and USA can benefit a lot, but from the perspective of welfare changes, China, Japan and Korea will benefit more from RCEP and TPP negotiations; if TPP were established but RCEP were not, USA would obtain the largest benefit, but China would get negative shocks from TPP negotiations; if RCEP were established but TPP were not, all the members of RCEP would get benefits, but USA would get losses from RCEP negotiations. Therefore, China at the current stage should strongly promote RCEP negotiations.

关 键 词：TPP RCEP 可计算一般均衡 经济效果 

分 类 号：F743[经济管理—国际贸易]