江门市1961—2013年前汛期暴雨气候变化特征  

On the Characteristics of Climatological Variation of Torrential Rain in the Annually First Raining Seasons from 1961 to 2013 in Jiangmen City

作　　者：徐碧标 陈晓文[2] 简健和 赵佩红[1] 梁敏妍[3] 

机构地区：[1]江门市新会区气象局,广东新会529100 [2]广东海洋大学,广东湛江524088 [3]江门市气象局,广东江门529020

出　　处：《广东气象》2015年第1期31-34,共4页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：广东省气象局课题(2012C06);江门市气象局资金资助

摘　　要：根据江门市新会区国家气象观测站1961—2013年逐日暴雨资料,采用线性趋势分析研究了江门市前汛期暴雨的气候变化特征。结果表明:近53年江门市前汛期年平均暴雨日2.8 d、大暴雨日0.7 d、特大暴雨日0.04 d;年平均暴雨量为385.4 mm,平均强度为75.5 mm/d。平均每10年的上升速率年暴雨频数为0.29次、年大暴雨0.13次、年暴雨量为28.6 mm、暴雨强度为1.0 mm/d;但均未通过0.05的显著性水平。2006年以来大暴雨出现的频数增加,表现出在全球气候变暖背景下,极端暴雨气候事件也呈现异常现象。前汛期年暴雨量和频数呈正比,暴雨日数多的年份对应降雨量也较多。Based on the day-to-day data of torrential rain from a national meteorological observation sta- tion in Xinhui District, Jiangmen City from 1961 to 2013 and with the method of linear trend analysis, this paper studies the characteristics of climatological variation of torrential rain （TR） in Jiangmen. The result is shown as follows. Over the past 53 years, there are 2.8 d of TR, 0.7 d of unusual TR and 0.04 d of exceptional TR as far as the annual mean number in the annually first raining season is concerned. The annual mean rainfall of TR is 385.4 mm with the mean intensity being 75.5 mm/d. the annual frequency of TR and unusual TR is increasing at rates of 0.29 and 0.13 times per 10 years respectively. The TR increases at 2. 86 mm/year while the TR intensity is 1.0 mm/d every ten years. Neither of them passes the 0.05 significance level. The frequency of unusual TR has been increasing since 2006, suggesting that the climate event of extreme TR is also abnormal with background of global climate warming. The annual TR rainfall is positively proportional with its annual frequency of occurrence; rainfall is large in the years of large number of TR days.

关 键 词：气候学 暴雨频数 暴雨降水量 暴雨降水强度 江门市 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]