基于云模型的金沙江流域年降水时空分布研究  

Analysis on Characteristics of Annual Precipitation Distribution in Jinsha River Basin Based on Cloud Mode

作　　者：刘睿[1] 陈晨[1] 林子伊 

机构地区：[1]四川省电力设计院,四川成都610072

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2015年第2期201-206,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

摘　　要：传统方法仅能对水文情势进行定性分析,难以对其时空分布的均匀性和稳定性进行量化。为了研究金沙江流域年降水的时空分布特性,收集了金沙江流域29个国家级气象站点1951年—2010年60 a的年降水数据,采用新方法和传统方法相结合的方式,描述流域年降水的时空分布特性。研究结果表明:60 a来流域年降水先减小,1999年后呈现增加的趋势。3个分区年降水在时间上分布都不均匀,中游地区的不均匀性最大,且不均匀的稳定性最差。年降水在时间和空间上分布相比,空间分布更不均匀,且稳定性更差。整个流域下游区域60 a平均降水最多,中游地区次之,上游地区最少。年降水在1984年发生突变,突变后的稳定较突变前增大。Traditional methods can be only used to qualitatively analyze the hydrological conditions, they are proven in- competent at quantifying the uniformity and stability of the temporal-spatial distribution. In order to study the temporal- spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Jinsha River Basin, the 60 years of annual precipitation data of 29 national meteorological stations in Jinsha River Basin from 1956 to 2010 were collected to analyze the distribution combining new methods and traditional methods. The analysis showed that annual precipitation firstly decreased then increased after 1999; the temporal distribution of annual precipitation was dispersive in all three divisions, with the middlestream area being the most dispersive. In addition, the spatial distribution of precipitation was more dispersive and unstable than tem- poral distribution. The mean annual precipitation in downstream area was highest, followed by the middlestream area, and then the upstream area. Annual precipitation mutation occurred in 1984, the spatial distribution of precipitation after the mutation was less dispersive and more stable than before.

关 键 词：年降水 云模型 金沙江流域 时空分布 非一致性 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]