基于两国一般均衡模型的金融危机诱因研究  

Research of the Incentive of Financial Crisis Based on Two Countries General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：张淑芹[1] 王玉凤[1] 肖宏伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第5期39-44,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"高维近似因子模型的极大似然分析:理论与方法"(71201031);国家自然科学基金项目"实现‘十二五’至2020年收入分配政策目标的测算--中国国民收入分配宏观CGE模型研制与应用"(70473043)

摘　　要：美国频繁对外作战导致其财政赤字不断恶化,从战争的视角探析世界金融危机频发的根源,有利于揭示出"美元霸权"的真正动机。在新开放宏观经济学研究范式的基础上,考虑到美元的中心地位,文章引入一国货币为国际储备货币,构建了具有微观基础的两国一般均衡模型,系统考察了储备货币发行国的财政冲击对世界实际利率和全球经济的影响。结果显示,美国巨额战争开支引致的财政恶化推高了世界利率,当利率上升超出稳定区间所要求的界限时,便会刺破泡沫,诱发危机。美国发动的阿富汗和伊拉克两场战争是本轮金融危机的重要诱因,而潜藏在战争背后的"美元霸权"才是本轮危机的实质根源。为应对"美元霸权",中国应积极推进人民币国际化。The United States frequently wages war which worsening its budget deficit. To study the root causes of the financial crisis from the perspective of the war, it is helpful to reveal the real motive of ＂dollar hegemony＂. Based on the paradigm of the new open economy macroeconomics, considering the central role of the U.S. dollar, this paper introduces a national currency as an international reserve currency, builds a two-country general equilibrium model with microfoundation, and analyzes the influence of the fiscal shock of the issuer of reserve currency to the world real interest rate and the global economy. The results show that American fiscal deterioration caused by the huge war spending drives up the world real interest rate. When the word interest rate rises beyond the boundaries of the required stability range, it will pierce the bubble and induce the crisis. The two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq started by America are important incentives of the financial crisis, and the ＂dollar hegemony＂ behind the war is the substantial cause of the crisis. In response to the ＂dollar hegemony＂, China should actively promote the internationalization of RMB.

关 键 词：金融危机 两国一般均衡模型 战争 财政冲击 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]