我国能源消费、二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系研究  

A Study on the Relationship of Energy Consumption, CO_2 Emissions and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：姚君[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际学院,江苏苏州215123

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第5期53-56,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学项目(11YJA790214);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金资助项目(2012SJB790005)

摘　　要：运用单位根、格兰杰因果检验和自向量回归模型,利用我国1953~2007年的样本数据,对我国的能源消费、二氧化碳排放、经济增长之间的动态关系进行计量分析。研究认为能源消费、二氧化碳排放和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。运用格兰杰因果关系检验发现能源消费、二氧化碳排放对经济增长同时存在长期和短期的因果关系,而能源消费是二氧化碳排放的原因。另外,VAR从脉冲响应函数和方差分解的结果可以看出能源消费对经济增长作用明显,而经济增长、能源消费对二氧化碳排放作用明显。因此,我国要实现碳排放目标,肯定要牺牲一定经济增长速度。从长远来看,要使经济与环境获得双赢,必须要调整我国能源结构,发现化石能源的替代能源,提高能源效率。This paper examines dynamic relationships on the long-run and the causal relationship between economic growth, carbon emissions and energy consumption for China for the period 1953-2007 based on unit root, Granger causality test and vector auto-regression. We found a short- run as well as a long-run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth. Further, applying a modified version of the Granger causality test in the form of long-run and short-run relationship, economic growth is determined by energy consumption and carbon emissions, while energy consumption is the main cause of carbon emissions. From the impulse response function and variance decomposition results, it is found that energy consumption is very importance to economic growth, energy consumption and economic growth are very importance to carbon emissions. The econometric evidence suggests that China has to sacrifice economic growth or reduce its energy consumption per unit of output or both in order to reduce carbon emissions. In the long run however, it is possible to realize the goal of economic goal of the country and at the same time reduce Carbon emissions by developing energy alternatives to coal, the main source of Carbon emissions and improving the efficient of the use of energy

关 键 词：能源消费 二氧化碳排放 经济增长 广义脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F062.2