基于状态空间法的战争的经济承受力研究  

Economic Support Capability of War: Research Based on State-space Technique

作　　者：陈汉[1] 谭清美[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第2期97-103,共7页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073079)

摘　　要：在保障国民经济系统稳定运行的基础上研究战争的经济承受力是适应高投入、高消耗的信息化战争的需要。选取国防支出占GDP的比例为战争的经济承受力指标,建立引入国防变量的联立方程模型,采用经济控制论中的状态空间法构造国民经济系统的状态方程,研究国民经济系统模型的稳定性、能控性与能观测性,并在系统稳定性的基础上测算了战争的经济承受力。研究表明,现阶段在不影响整个国民经济系统稳定运行的前提下,中国本期的战争的经济承受力应不超过上一期GDP水平的26.92%,中国在2013年能承受的国防支出的临界点为139 801亿元。It is very important to study the economic support capability of war based on the stable operation of the national economic system so as to adapt to the high consumption and high input in the information-based war. The paper selects the defense expenditure accounts for the proportion of GDP as the index of the economic support capability of war,and establishes a simultaneous equations model which contains defense variables. The paper then adopts state equations of national economic system through state-space technique from Economic Cybernetics,and calculates the stability,controllability and observation of national economic system,and works out the economic support capability of war based on the stability of the system. The result shows that the economic support capability of war in the current period should not exceed 26. 92% of GDP in the prior period. In 2013,the critical point of defense expenditure was1 398. 01 billion yuan on the premise of the stability of national economic system in China.

关 键 词：状态空间法 经济承受力 国防支出 国民经济系统 经济控制论 

分 类 号：E0-054[军事—军事理论]