2005~2013年广州某大型综合医院门急诊人次变动趋势分析  

Dynamic Analysis of Outpatient and Emergency Visits in a Large Tertiary Hospital in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2013

作　　者：程舒媛[1] 何智敏[1] 曾讯[1] 彭丹心[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学附属第一医院门诊办公室,广州510080

出　　处：《中国循证医学杂志》2015年第4期389-392,共4页Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine

基　　金：中山大学高校管理研究课题(编号:2013C030586);四川大学西部农村卫生发展研究中心CMB项目(编号:14-176)

摘　　要：目的调查广州某大型综合医院门急诊量随季节变化的流向规律。方法运用时间序列季节指数法对广州某大型综合医院2005~2013年9年间的门急诊诊疗人次的季节变化进行统计分析。结果门急诊病人流量受季节因素影响显著,季节指数以3、7、8、11、12月最高（季节指数〉105%）,1、2、10月最低（季节指数〈95%）。结论卫生决策者及医院应根据门急诊患者季节变动规律,合理进行医疗资源的优化配置,保障医疗质量与患者安全。Objective To acquire the flow law of outpatient and emergency visits in a large general hospital. Methods By sampling monthly amount of outpatient and emergency from January 2005 to December 2013 of a large general hospital in Guangzhou, the trend of the time series was analyzed and calculated the seasonal index of the amount of hospital outpatient and emergency visits with the use of long-term trends method. Result The flow law of patients in the hospital outpatient and emergency was significantly affected by seasonal factors, and different month had its own variation characters. The seasonal indexes were the highest in March, July, August, November and December（seasonal index 〉105%）, while the lowest in January, February, October（seasonal index 〈95%）. Conclusion Based on analysis of the outpatient and emergency visits and causes with hospitals, decision makers and hospitals should make reasonable allocation of medical resources and provide evidence for the scientific decisions of hospital management. Thus, ensure the safety of patients.

关 键 词：门急诊量 时间序列 季节指数 季节因素 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]