2008-2012年南昌市手足口病的流行特征及时空聚集性分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering analysis on Hand foot and mouth disease in Nanchang city during 2008 to 2012

作　　者：曹飞[1] 李辉[2] 刘明斌[3] 戚京城[2] 熊昌辉[3] 陈宝[1] 李譞超[1] 黄鹏[4] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学研究生院医学部,2012级江西南昌330000 [2]南昌市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,江西南昌330000 [3]南昌市疾病预防控制中心科教信息科,江西南昌330000 [4]南昌大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,江西南昌330000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第8期1356-1358,1373,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江西省卫生厅科技计划(20153010)

摘　　要：目的分析2008-2012年南昌市手足口病的流行病学特征,探索该病在南昌市可能存在的时空聚集区。方法利用2008-2012年南昌市手足口病的监测数据及南昌市人口数据,以县区为单位,首先描述该病的流行病学特征,然后利用Sa TScan软件从时空二维角度探索该病在南昌市可能存在的时空聚集区。结果 2008-2012年南昌市手足口病累计发病29 062例,年均发病率为118.86/10万,发病水平逐年增长,年均增长率为111.42%,发病高峰在4-7月份。病例主要集中于0-5岁年龄组儿童,占发病总数的92.91%;所有病例中散居儿童占73.72%,托幼儿童占23.33%,男性儿童的发病率高于女性。青山湖区、青云谱区、新建县3个县区的手足口病年均发病率〉118.86/10万（全市年均发病率）,属于相对高发区;安义县、进贤县、湾里区3个县区的手足口病年均发病率明显低于全市年均发病水平,属于相对低发区。全部病例中发现6个一类和二类时空聚集区,聚集时间多为每年的3-7月份,一类聚集区主要分布在青山湖区、东湖区、西湖区、青云谱区、新建县5个区县。2008-2011年,聚集区内外手足口病发病的相对危险度RR值由9.79下降到2.03,2012年又骤升至9.45。结论南昌市手足口病仍处于高发、高增长态势,小于5岁的散居儿童为发病高危人群;青山湖区、东湖区、西湖区、青云谱区、新建县5个区县存在明显的时空聚集性,且聚集时间相比发病高峰提前1个月左右。Objective This work aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of Hand foot and mouth disease in Nanchang city during 2008 to 2012, and detect the potential temporal-spatial clusters. Methods Surveillance information of Hand foot and mouth disease in Nanchang city during January 2008 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. The epidemiological characteristics was described using descriptive epidemiological methods. Spacetime scan statistics was used to detect the potential temporal-spatial clusters. Results During 2008 to 2012, a total of 29062 cases were reported in Nanchang, with an annual incidence of 118.86 per 10000, and an annual growth rate of 111.42%. The peak of incidence was observed during April to July every year. The 5 years old or even younger accounted for 92.91% of the total cases,scatter children for 73.72%, and kindergarten children for 23.33%. Males were more likely to be infected with Hand foot and mouth disease than females.Incidence was high in regions such as Qingshanhu district, Qingyunpu district, Xinjian county, but low in Anyi county, Jinxian county and Wanli district. Six clusters, including 5 grade-I gathering areas and 1 grade-II gathering area, were detected from March to July. The grade-I gathering areas distributed in Donghu district, Xihu district, Qingyunpu district and Xinjian county. During 2008-2011, in gathering areas, the relative risk of hand foot and mouth disease dropped from 9.79 to 2.03,but suddenly rose to 9.45 in 2012. Conclusion Incidence of hand foot and mouth disease was still high and ascending in Nanchang.Scatter children who were 5 years old or younger was at high risk. The temporal-spatial gathering pattern was observed in Donghu district, Xihu district, Qingyunpu district and Xinjian county areas, and the gathering time was one month ahead of the incidence peak.

关 键 词：手足口病 流行特征 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]