1991-2013年上海市老年人意外跌落死亡流行特征及趋势分析  

Analysis on the mortality and the trend of accidental fall among elderly people aged 60 years and above in Shanghai from 1991 to 2013

作　　者：郑杨[1] 韩明[1] 蔡任之[1] 靳文正[1] 钱耐思[1] 王春芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海200336

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第8期1359-1362,1385,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：上海市卫生局科研项目(20114Y031)

摘　　要：目的分析上海市老年人意外跌落死亡的流行特征及趋势。方法根据上海市居民死亡医学登记系统,运用DEATHREG2010、Excel2007和SPSS20.0软件描述和分析上海市1991-2013年60岁及以上老年人意外跌落死亡特征,采用年估计变化百分比(EAPC)指标评价死亡率的时间变化趋势。结果上海市1991-2013年60岁及以上老年人意外跌落平均粗死亡率为61.2/10万,平均标化死亡率为58.8/10万,占全人群意外跌落的87.0%,占老年人伤害死亡的44.6%,居老年人伤害首位死因。老年人意外跌落死亡率整体上以每年1.6%的速度随时间呈下降趋势(EAPC=-1.6%,P<0.05),随年龄增长而增高(χ2趋势=78 444.3,P<0.05),老年女性意外跌落死亡率高于男性(χ2=1 377.0,P<0.05),中心城区老年人意外跌落死亡率高于非中心城区(χ2=409.5,P<0.05)。结论上海市老年人意外跌落死亡的情况正在逐渐改善,仍需进一步监测和继续加强防控。Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality and the trend of accidental fall among elderly people aged60 years and above in Shanghai. Methods The mortality and the trend of accidental fall aged 60-plus from 1991 to 2013 were analyzed with DEATHREG2010, Excel2007 and SPSS20.0 based on the database from the Shanghai Cause-of-Death Registry System. The index of EAPC was applied to estimate the time trend of mortality. Results The crude death rate of accidental fall among the elders aged 60-plus in Shanghai was 61.2/100 000 and the standardized death rate was 58.8/100 000. The death accounted for 87.0% of the total cases of accidental fall death and accounted for 44.6% of the total cases of the elder death.Accidental fall was the major cause leading to injury deaths among the elder. The mortality decreased each year at the annual speed of 1.6%（EAPC=-1.6%, P〈0.001） and increased with increasing age（χ^2=78444.3, P〈0.001）. The total mortality for women was higher than that for men（χ^2=1377.0, P〈0.001）. The total mortality for central urban area was higher than that for the other area（χ^2=409.5,P〈0.001）. Conclusion The mortality of accidental fall among the elder in Shanghai was decline these years, and further surveillance and precaution should be taken.

关 键 词：意外跌落 老年人 死亡率 趋势分析 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]