碳排放下中泰水果贸易影响因素和贸易潜力的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on Influence Factors and Trade Potential of Fruits Trade in China and Thailand by Considering Carbon Emissions

作　　者：颜小挺[1] 祁春节[2,1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院 [2]华中农业大学园艺经济研究所

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2015年第2期50-54,共5页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项经费资助(编号CARS-07-07B);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(项目批准号2011PY060)

摘　　要：中国和泰国是对方重要的水果出口市场,热带水果和温带水果有很强的互补性。本文将碳排放量作为重要因素引入扩展引力模型,研究两国水果出口影响因素与潜力。得到结论:(1)中国GDP、泰国水果总产量和中国碳排放量对中国水果出口到泰国有显著影响,两国GDP、中国人均收入、泰国水果总产量及其碳排放对泰国水果出口有显著影响;(2)碳排放对两国水果出口有正向促进作用,泰国的作用更大;(3)两国的水果贸易基本已饱和,中国的出口规模趋于合理。China and Thailand are important export markets to each other. China＇s temperate fruits and Thailand＇ s tropical fruit are complementary products.In this paper, the variable of carbon emissions was regarded as important factor and contained in the extended gravity model which was used to research the factors affecting the fruits export and trade potential. We came to conclusions： （1） China＇s GDP, Thailand＇s fruits production and China＇s carbon emissions have a significant influence on China＇s fruits export to Thailand. two countries＇ GDP, China＇ s per capita GDP, Thailand＇ s fruits production and carbon emissions have a significant impact on Thailand＇ s fruits export. （2）Both countries＇ carbon emissions have a positive.role in promoting exporting fruits. （3） There is almost no export potential in both countries.

关 键 词：碳排放 扩展引力模型 贸易潜力 水果贸易 中国和泰国 

分 类 号：F753[经济管理—国际贸易]