基于故障贝叶斯网的冷链物流系统可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of cold-chain logistics system based on fault Bayesian networks

作　　者：郭茜[1,2] 蒲云[2] 郑斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输系,四川峨眉614202 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《控制与决策》2015年第5期911-916,共6页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51278429);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(10501B10096015);西南交通大学峨眉校区高层次人才科研专项支持经费项目(10501X10096013)

摘　　要：借鉴可靠性工程理论中系统可靠性的分析方法,将冷链物流系统运行故障这一抽象问题具体化处理,根据系统中各功能环节的运行特点及事件之间的因果关系,构建冷链物流系统的系统失效故障树;在此基础上生成贝叶斯网络,以综合评估冷链物流系统的运行可靠性,揭示系统故障产生的主要原因,为改进冷链物流系统的运行可靠性提供定量依据.将所提出方法用于某第三方冷链物流企业的运作管理中,取得了预期效果.By borrowing ideas from the reliability analysis in reliability engineering theory, the abstract problem of cold- chain logistics system fault is crystallized and its fault tree is constructed according to operation features of various functional parts and the causal relationship between events in cold-chain logistics system. By converting fault tree to Bayesian networks, it is convenient to draw a comprehensive evaluation for the system reliability of cold-chain logistics system and reveal the main cause of system failure, in order to provide quantitative foundation for improving system reliability. In a third party cold-chain logistics enterprise, expected results are obtained by applying the proposed method.

关 键 词：冷链物流系统 可靠性 故障树 贝叶斯网 

分 类 号：F237.7[经济管理—会计学]