概率法在多断块气藏储量风险评估中的应用——以塔里木盆地大北气田为例  

Application of Probability Method in the Reserves Risk Evaluation of Multi-fault Block Gasfield——An Example from Dabei Gasfield in Tarim Basin

作　　者：初广震[1,2] 邵龙义[1] 徐艳梅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与工程测绘学院,北京100083 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院廊坊分院,河北廊坊065007

出　　处：《非常规油气》2014年第2期13-19,共7页Unconventional Oil & Gas

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技重大专项(2011ZX05009-002-103)

摘　　要：克拉苏构造带复杂多断块超高压气藏面临构造不确定和气水界面不落实等多种开发难题,给储量评估带来了较大的风险。概率法所产生的估算范畴,以及相关的可能性分析能够满足多断块气藏的储量风险评估需求。基于容积法公式,对储量各个参数进行合理有效取值,选取适合研究区域的概率分布函数,采用概率法(蒙特卡洛法)对各个参数的累积分布函数进行随机抽样,经过多次迭代计算得到各个断块地质储量分布区间,进一步对各个断块储量分布区间求和进行二次蒙特卡洛模拟,最终得出整个气田的地质储量分布区间,确定证实储量(P90)、基准储量(P50)和可能储量(P10),并对储量评估中的各个参数进行敏感性分析,从而实现整个气田的储量风险评估。储量参数取值和合理概率分布函数的选取是模拟结果是否可靠的关键,利用概率法进行油气田储量风险评估为编制开发方案和开发决策提供了理论依据。Uncertainty of structures and gas-water contacts is a difficult development problem for the multi-fault-block ul- trahigh-pressure gas reservoirs in Kelasu structural belt, which brings in the risks of the reserve evaluation. Probabilistic method to estimate the scope of the resulting likelihood analysis and related reserves could meet the multi-block gas reser- voir risk assessment needs. Based on volume method the formula of reasonable reserves valid values for each parameter, we selected the probability distribution function for the study area, using probabilistic methods （Monte Carlo method） for the cumulative distribution function of various parameters of a random sample, then obtained after several iterations geological reserves of each block distribution of the interval, and further reserves the distribution range for each block summation sec- ondary Monte Carlo simulation, and ultimately comes to the distribution range of the gas reserves, determines proved re- serves （P90）, the benchmark reserves （P50） and probable reserves （PIO）, and reserves evaluation conducted sensitivity analysis of various parameters in order to achieve the entire field of risk assessment of reserves. Selection of the parameter values and reasonable reserves probability distribution function is the key to the reliability of the simulation results, perform oil and gas reserves using probabilistic risk assessment method provides a theoretical basis for the preparation of the devel- opment plan and development decisions.

关 键 词：概率法 油气储量 大北气田 储量风险评估 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]