基于广义线性模型的固体推进剂贮存寿命评估  

Storage life assessment for solid propellant based on generalized linear model

作　　者：洪东跑[1] 王英华[1] 管飞[1] 马小兵[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100076 [2]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2015年第1期29-32,共4页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

摘　　要：研究了固体推进剂在贮存过程中性能退化对贮存寿命与可靠性的影响,提出了一种基于广义线性模型的固体推进剂贮存寿命与可靠性评估方法.首先结合固体推进剂退化数据的特点,利用位置刻度模型来描述固体推进剂抗拉强度与贮存时间的关系,建立了固体推进剂的贮存寿命模型.然后利用广义线性模型,给出了贮存寿命模型系数的极大似然估计.根据极大似然估计的渐近正态性,利用Fisher信息矩阵,给出了贮存寿命与可靠度近似置信下限.结合算例表明该方法综合利用固体推进剂在不同贮存时间下的性能数据,改善了固体推进剂贮存寿命与可靠性评估精度.To describe the influence of performance degradation on storage life and reliability for solid propellant,a method of storage life and reliability assessment based on generalized linear model was proposed.According to the characteristic of solid propellant degradation data,the local scale model was introduced to relate the solid propellant tensile strength to storage time,and the storage life and reliability model for solid propellant was established. The maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients were obtained with the generalized linear model for Poisson distribution. Furthermore,the approximated confidence interval for the reliability function was obtained with Fisher information matrix according to the normal law. The instance analysis shows that the performance data under varied storage time was used synthetically to enlarge the sample size and increase the information for storage reliability assessment. Thus,the storage life and reliability assessment precision was improved

关 键 词：固体推进剂 抗拉强度 贮存寿命 广义线性模型 位置刻度模型 

分 类 号：V435[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]