基于SDG和灰色聚类的系统故障风险评估方法  

Research on fault risk assessment of system based on SDG and grey clustering method

作　　者：金灿灿[1] 王海燕[1] 左洪福[2] 周虹[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院,南京210046 [2]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016 [3]上海工程技术大学航空运输学院,上海201620

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第4期1048-1056,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71433006);国家自然科学基金与中国民航联合资助基金重点项目(60939003)

摘　　要：开展风险评估研究对于提高民航安全具有重要意义.传统的系统故障风险评估的分析对象是故障模式,在实际中一个故障模式往往可作为另一故障模式的原因或者影响,故障影响是一个逐渐变化的过程.为更准确、客观地评估系统故障风险,本文把故障模式的传播过程描述为一故障链,运用SDG模型推理得出故障模式导致的各种故障序列,将故障模式及其各种后续故障序列看作灰色系统,将风险评估过程视为一灰色系统工程,用灰色聚类决策对这些序列进行风险评估,解决了风险评估过程中评价指标和属性值难以确定和量化,风险分析和评估缺乏系统性和一致性的问题.应用实例表明,基于SDG和灰色聚类决策的风险评估方法能有效地应用于民机系统故障风险评估.本论文研究结果对于复杂系统的故障风险分析具有重要的参考价值.Carrying out studies on risk assessment has very important significance to improving the safety level on the civil aviation. Traditional analyzing object of system failure risk assessment is failure mode. In practice, one of the failure modes usually serves as the reason and influence of another failure mode. Failure affect is a gradually changed process. To evaluate the risk of system failure more accurately and objectively, this article describes the process of failure modes＇ spread as a failure link. The various fault sequence, which the failure modes lead to, is inference based on the SDG model. It regards the failure modes and the other follow-up failure sequences as the grey system, and treats the process of risk assessment as a grey system project. Using the grey clustering decision to evaluate the risk of these sequences solve the problem in the risk assessing process, which is about confirming and quantifying the evaluation index, and lack of systematicness and consistency of risk analysis and assessment. According to application examples, the assessment method based on grey clustering and SDG is able to utilize in fault risk assessment of civil aircraft. The research results of this paper have an important referential significance for the failure risk analysis of complex systems.

关 键 词：故障风险评估 故障链 SDG 灰色聚类 

分 类 号：V245.3[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] TP277[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]