基于多元线性回归模型的我国世界冠军人数影响因素分析  

Analysis of Influencing Factors in Number of Chinese Population the World Champion Based on Multiple Linear Regression Model

作　　者：冉艳恩[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学体育学院,郑州450044

出　　处：《河南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期179-184,共6页Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：河南省科技厅软科学项目(142400410173)

摘　　要：运用多元线性回归模型分析了我国当年获得世界冠军人数与我国当年总人口数和当年国内生产总值两个外部环境,以及二级以上运动员人数和各级体育系统职工人数两个内部环境,这4个影响因素之间的关系.首先用灰色关联分析,得到作为子因素数列的4个影响因素和作为母因素数列的当年获得世界冠军人数之间的关联度.为了进一步知道每个因素和当年获得世界冠军人数的具体函数关系,利用多元线性回归分析,构建每年获得世界冠军的人数与4个影响因素之间的多元线性回归模型,且通过F检验证明模型与实际相符合,为我国运动员的训练和国家政策的制定提供理论依据.In this paper,using multiple linear regression,we analyzed the relationship between the number of China＇s world champion and four factors,i.e.China＇s population and GDP as external environment,and the number of more than second level athletes and the number of all levels of sports workers as internal environment.Firstly,by the gray realationsl analysis,we obtain the correlation degree between four influence factors as sub factors sequence and the number of world champions as maternal factors sequence.In order to know the function relationship further between each factor and the number of world champions,by multiple linear regression analysis,we construct the multiple linear regression model of the number of annual world champion and four influence factors,and prove that the model is in accord with the fact through the F test,providing a theoretical basis for the training of our athletes and national policy.

关 键 词：世界冠军人数 总人口数 国内生产总值 回归模型 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计] G80-32[理学—数学]