基于ETA和CREAM的跑道侵入风险评价方法研究  

Study on safety assessment of runway incursion based on ETA and CREAM

作　　者：袁乐平[1,2] 孙瑞山[1,2] 程明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国家空管运行安全技术重点实验室,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《飞行力学》2015年第2期187-192,共6页Flight Dynamics

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)基金资助(2010CB734105);民航科技基金资助(MHRD201211);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(3122014D048)

摘　　要：为了防范跑道侵入风险,利用事件树分析(ETA)方法,按照事件发展的逻辑顺序对跑道侵入过程进行了分析,考虑了在管制员、飞行员、地面车辆驾驶员失效情况下,导致跑道侵入的各种情况。同时采用认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM),分析了这一过程中管制员、飞行员、地面车辆驾驶员的失误概率,并在事件树分析框架下计算了总体失效概率。分析和计算过程是跑道侵入事件概率安全评估的探索和尝试,为跑道侵入的安全分析提供了量化参考。For the purpose of runway incursion prevention,risks are analyzed by demonstrating the logic sequence of runway incursion event with event tree analysis（ ETA）,which make it possible to understand the development and consequences of runway incursion. A basic human reliability assessment technique,the cognitive reliability and error analysis method（ CREAM）,was introduced to evaluate the effect of air traffic controllers,pilots,and ground vehicle drivers in the process,which is generally regarded as key issues in probabilistic safety assessment. Total failure probability of runway incursion risk was finally obtained in the ETA framework. Analysis and computation of incursion risk was an attempt of quantitative risk assessment in air transportation,and provides a benchmark for runway incursion safety analysis.

关 键 词：航空运输 安全 跑道侵入 概率安全评估 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]