气候变化背景下农业技术适宜性研究  

Study on adaptive capacity of agricultural technology to climate change

作　　者：翟治芬[1] 严昌荣[2] 张建华[3] 

机构地区：[1]农业部规划设计研究院,北京100125 [2]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [3]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2015年第1期185-194,共10页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD09B01);公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(2014-J-012;2014-J-011)

摘　　要：以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对环境、生态和社会经济系统产生重大影响,并通过对农业生产和相关产业的影响直接威胁我国乃至全球的粮食安全。在文献分析和实地调研的基础上,收集和整理农业生产基本数据和我国现有的农业技术资料数据;根据IPPC第5次评估报告中气候变化影响框架的基本思想,构建气候变化背景下区域与农业技术适应情景矩阵;采用多目标综合评价法,构建农业技术适宜性评估模型。结果表明:农业技术适宜性评估主要考虑技术本身的特点和区域的实际情况;在农业技术评价指标体系与区域评价指标体系构建中,主要考虑的因素包括:作物适宜性、水资源条件、光温条件、地形条件、经济条件和生态条件等6个方面;应用农业技术适宜性评估模型,可实现农业技术的区域适宜性评估,获得不同农业种植二级区内适应气候变化的农业技术。Global climate change has significant impact on environments,ecology and social economy,which make a direct threat to the world food security through affecting agricultural production.Based on literature analysis and field research,this paper collected the basic data of agricultural production and the existing agricultural technologies in China.According to the basic idea of climate change impact framework of IPPC fifth Assessment Report,a matrix for evaluating the adaptation between regional climate and corresponding technologies was？？presented.By using the multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method,the agricultural technology suitability evaluation model was built,which was used to analyze agricultural technical suitability in different regions.The suitability evaluation was mainly standing on the characteristics of agricultural technology and actual situation of regions.The agricultural technology evaluation index and regional evaluation index were established,in which key factors include 6aspects：crop suitability,water resources condition,temperature and light conditions,terrain conditions,economic conditions and ecological conditions.By using the multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method,the regional suitability assessment of agricultural technologies could be realized,and from which obtaining the agricultural technologies adapting to the climate change in different second level agricultural cultivation area.

关 键 词：气候变化 农业技术 技术评估 适应能力 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]