煤电能源供应链风险递展机理分析:结构型和过程型  

Analysis on Risk Transferring-Spreading in China's Coal-Electricity Energy Supply Chain:Structure-oriented and Process-oriented

作　　者：谭忠富[1] 刘平阔[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《技术经济》2015年第4期51-63,80,共14页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"煤电能源供应链风险递展动因分析及风险控制模拟模型研究"(71273090)

摘　　要：定义了"供应链风险递展"的概念,将风险递展分为3类,即"效果型""结构型"和"过程型"。利用解释结构方程和卡方自动交叉检验方法,分别对结构型递展和过程型递展的作用机理进行建模和分析。研究结果如下:结构型递展过程主要体现各风险之间的结构关系,过程型递展过程主要体现利益相关主体在决策过程中对风险考量的优先排序;在分析结构型递展过程时,将煤电能源供应链风险指标分布于8个层次,"制度/法律风险"和"经济周期风险"是影响煤电能源供应链安全性的源头;在分析过程型递展过程时,将煤电能源供应链风险指标分为18个类别,并筛选出可影响供应链安全性的9个风险。This paper defines the concept of ＂supply chain risk transferring-spreading＂,and classifies it into three types,namely ＂effect-oriented＂, ＂structure-oriented＂ and ＂process-oriented＂.Then it uses the interpretative structural modeling（ISM）and Chi-square automatic interaction detection（CSAID）to build the models＇ and discusses the mechanisms of the structure-oriented and the process-oriented respectively.The results show as follows：the structure-oriented transferring-spreading mainly reflects the structural relationship among the risks in coal-electricity energy supply chain,and the process-oriented transferring-spreading mainly illustrates the risk priority of stakeholders in decision-making process;the structure-oriented transferring-spreading analysis helps to distribute the risk indicators in 8levels which make the institutional-legal risk and the economic cycle risk turn into the source of other risks;in the analysis on the process-oriented transferring-spreading,the energy supply chain risk indicators are classified into 18 categories,and 9risks affecting the safety of coal-electricity energy supply chain are filtered out as well.

关 键 词：煤电能源 能源供应链 供应链风险 风险递展 

分 类 号：F426.6[经济管理—产业经济] F274