未来气候变化对东北三省水稻产量影响的评估  

Predicting the impact of future climate change on rice yield in Northeast China

作　　者：李忠辉[1] 刘实[1] 郭春明[1] 王冬妮[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象科学研究所/中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风研究开放实验室,长春130062

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2015年第2期223-228,共6页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF0913);中国气象局公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206018);吉林气象局科研课题面上项目(2014009)

摘　　要：基于国际水稻所开发的ORYZA2000水稻模型和未来A2和B2排放情景下逐日气象资料(2011—2050年),系统分析了未来40年东北地区气候变化对水稻产量的影响。结果显示:在灌溉满足的情况下,其2种排放情景下对水稻生产都是正效应,单产和总产都呈增加趋势。能够种植的区域也在增加,有北移的趋势,B2情景下比A2情景下更有利于水稻产量的提高。在A2和B2排放情景下,东北区域相对基准段二氧化碳浓度升高及降水总体增加,个别年代减少、温度升高和太阳辐射增加。有利的方面是当地可以根据温度升高的幅度,适当的种植生育期较长的品种,从而增加产量;不利的方面是气温升高加速土壤有机质分解,土壤肥力下降,病虫害发生频率增加。应采取测土配方施肥措施,加强病虫害监测防治工作,保证水稻生长需要。Northeast region of China is an important base of rice production.The impact of climate change on rice yield is of important significance for national food security.In this paper,based on daily meteorological data from the future A2 and B2 emission scenarios（2011—2050）,the impact of climate change in Northeast China over the next 40 years on the yield of rice was analyzed with the ORYZA2000 model developed by the International Rice Institute.The results showed that rice yield and total output might increase in the irrigated region under the two emission scenarios.The area suitable to grow crops can extend toward to northward.Rice yield will be higher at B2 scenario rather than that at A2 scenario.Carbon dioxide relative to the reference period may increase in northeast region,so do the overall precipitation,temperature and solar radiation.But precipitation in a single year may decrease.The advantageous aspect is that the crops and varieties can be introduced and thus have higher production.However,it should be warned that soil fertility may be declined since depletion of soil organic matter.The diseases and insect pests may occur with high frequency.The attention should be pained on soil test and fertilizer recommendation,and pest and disease monitoring and control,for guaranteeing rice prodcution.

关 键 词：水稻 ORYZA2000 气候变化 产量 东北 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]