不同生命周期阶段家庭储蓄率的决定因素——基于城镇住户调查数据的实证检验  

Determinants of Saving Rates of Household at Different Life Cycle Stages——An Empirical Study Based on Urban Household Survey Data

作　　者：易行健[1] 盛威[1] 杨碧云[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2015年第5期25-38,共14页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71373057);国家自然科学基金(71073032);教育部新世纪优秀人才项目(NCET-11-0913);广东省高等教育"创新强校工程"项目;广东外语外贸大学高层次人才项目(GWTP-GC-2014-01)

摘　　要：利用2009年与2002年中国六个省份与直辖市的城镇住户调查数据,对总体家庭储蓄率与不同生命周期阶段家庭储蓄率的决定因素进行了实证检验与扩展分析。研究表明:(1)2009年和2002年的家庭储蓄率都呈现出U型的生命周期特征;(2)两年的回归均显示,除可支配收入以外,其他户主特征以及家庭人口结构特征等变量对不同生命周期阶段家庭的储蓄率的影响均存在差异;(3)不管家庭处于哪个生命周期阶段,收入阶层越高的家庭,储蓄率也会显著越高;(4)收入的不确定性和医疗支出的不确定性都对各个不同生命周期家庭的储蓄率有显著正向影响;(5)城市人口规模和中年家庭的储蓄率呈显著的负向关系,但和总体家庭以及其他分类家庭的储蓄率呈显著的U型关系。This paper uses the 2009 and 2002 Urban Household Survey data of six provinces and the municipality to investigate the factors influencing aggregate household saving rate and the different life cycle stages＇ household saving rates. The conclusions show that：（1）Both of the two years＇ household saving rates feature a U-shape through the household life cycle;（2）In the two years, except for the household disposable income, other factors about household characters and family population structure have different effects on the household saving rates of different life stage;（3）At any stage of household＇s life cycle, the higher income of the household, the savings rate will be significantly higher;（4）Both of income uncertainty and medical expenditure uncertainty have positive effect significantly on the household saving rates of different life cycle stages;（5）The urban population size has negative correlation with saving rate of middle-aged household significantly, but has U-shape correlation with aggregate household saving rate and other life cycle stages＇ household saving rates.

关 键 词：家庭储蓄率 收入阶层 不确定性 城市人口规模 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]