新疆兵团农机化装备水平的预测分析  

Based on the Exponential Smoothing Forecast and Analysis of Bingtuan Agricultural Mechanization Level of Equipment

作　　者：田建刚[1,2] 王红飙[1,2] 王旭峰[1,2] 刘博[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学机械电气化工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]南疆农业机械化研究中心,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《农机化研究》2015年第9期5-9,共5页Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research

基　　金：新疆建设兵团软科学研究项目(2013BB025)

摘　　要：农业机械化是运用农业机器代替人力、畜力进行农业生产与经济发展的过程,也是实现现代化农业的主要内容和重要标志之一。为此,主要收集、整理了1994-2012年新疆建设兵团农机装备各指标的历史数据,采用拟合程度较高的指数平滑法进行预测分析未来10年新疆建设兵团的装备水平,包括农业机械总动力、大中型拖拉机及其机引农机具的保有数据、小型拖拉机及其机引农机具的保有数据。该研究旨在为政府部门制定农机化发展规划提供一定的依据。Agricultural mechanization is the use of machines and equipment in place of human , animal power and eco-nomic development process of agricultural production and realization of one of the main content and an important symbol of modern agriculture .Total power of agricultural machinery mainly through the corps over the next decade , small and large and medium-sized tractors and farm tools for tractor and farm tools for data reflect the level of agricultural mechani -zation equipment .Bingtuan farm machinery and equipment data collection and collation of 1995-2012 years, with more fitting analysis of exponential smoothing method for the prediction of the level of army equipment , providing the basis for the development of agricultural mechanization development plan .

关 键 词：农业机械化 指数平滑 装备水平 

分 类 号：S23-01[农业科学—农业机械化工程]