综合应用Delphi法、风险矩阵法与Borda序值法评估医院病区药品管理风险  

Integrated application of Delphi, risk matrix and Borda count methods in assessment of risks of drugs management in wards

作　　者：张镭[1] 毕宏焱[1] 解丽娜[1] 梁颖[1] 陆进[1] 

机构地区：[1]中日友好医院药学部,北京100029

出　　处：《临床药物治疗杂志》2015年第2期29-33,共5页Clinical Medication Journal

基　　金：北京药学会临床药学课题研究资助项目(2014)

摘　　要：目的:探讨病区药品管理风险评估方法,为科学制定病区药品风险应对策略提供依据。方法:以中日友好医院病区药品管理风险为研究对象,采用Delphi法对病区药品管理风险发生的可能性及后果的严重性进行风险分析;应用风险矩阵法评价病区药品管理风险的风险水平;采用Borda序值法对5类风险进行了排序。结果:2轮调研的专家积极系数均为100%,权威系数为(0.86±0.06),第2轮专家咨询结果显示,受访专家对5项风险的风险发生可能性和后果严重性评价的Kendall协调系数Wc分别为0.428(χ2=25.669,P<0.005),0.426(χ2=25.553,P<0.005),Wc值统计学意义显著。确定了5类病区药品管理风险发生的可能性和后果严重性,并确定了5类风险事件的风险水平及其排序,其中"病区药品管理人员专业素质"的风险排序位列第一。结论:综合应用Delphi法、风险矩阵法与Borda序值法是评估医院药品风险的有效方法,具有推广应用价值。Objective：To discuss risk assessments of drugs management in wards in order to provide scientific basis for policy makings of drugs management.Methods： The risks of drugs management in wards were selected as the subjects for the survey. A two-round Delphi consultation was held to evaluate the possibility and the consequence severity of the 5 categories of risks of drugs management in wards. The risk matrix method was employed to assess risk levels of drugs management in wards. Furthermore, the Borda count method was used to sort risk levels.Results：The response rates of the two-round consultations from the experts were both 100%, the average authority coefficient of experts was 0.86±0.06. As results of second round consultation, Kendall＇s coefficient of risk possibility and the risk consequence severity were 0.428（χ2=25.669,P〈0.005） and 0.426（χ2=25.553,P〈0.005）, with statistical significance by chi-square test. The risk possibility and the risk consequence severity of the 5 categories of risks of drugs management in wards were determined. The risk levels of the 5 categories of risks of drugs management in wards were identified and sorted, and stuff ability ranked first among them.Conclusion：The integrated application of Delphi, risk matrix, and Borda count methods was effective on evaluating the risk levels of risks of drugs management in wards, and therefore it was worthy of wide promotion.

关 键 词：药品风险 DELPHI法 风险矩阵法 Borda序值法 

分 类 号：R969.3[医药卫生—药理学]