2014年中国电力供需回顾及2015年预测  

China's Power Supply and Demand Review in 2014 and Prediction in 2015

作　　者：谭显东[1] 韩新阳[1] 冯义[2] 郭利杰[1] 单葆国[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京102209 [2]国家电网公司,北京100031

出　　处：《中国电力》2015年第4期1-5,共5页Electric Power

摘　　要：分析了2014年中国电力供需特点,对2015年中国电力供需形势进行了预测,提出了相关措施建议.2014年受经济增长趋缓及凉夏暖冬等因素影响,中国电力消费增速和发电设备利用小时数分别为近16年和37年新低.2015年,中国电力需求增速将回升至4.0％～6.0％,全社会用电量将达到5.77万亿～5.88万亿kW＆#183;h;净增发电装机约9 140万kW,年底总装机容量将达到14.5亿kW;火电设备利用小时数进一步下降至4 638 h左右;全国电力供需总体平衡,但局部地区仍存在少量电力缺口,分区域看,华北电网地区电力供需平衡偏紧,华东、华中、南方电网地区电力供需平衡,东北、西北电网地区电力供应富余.The features of China＇s electricity demand and supply in 2014 are analyzed and the power supply and demand situation in the year of 2015 are forecasted in the paper, based on which some suggestions are proposed to guarantee the electric power supply. The analyis shows that the power consumption growth and the using hours of thermal power generation units in 2014 were the lowest in 16 years and 37 years respectively in China, which was mainly affected by the economic slowdown in growth and the uncommon weather of cool summer and warm winter. It is predicted that China＇s national electricity demand will reach 5 769-5 879 TW-h in 2015, growing by 4.0%-6.0%, the net installed generation capacity will increase by 91.4 million kilowatts with the total installed generation capacity reaching 1.45 billion kilowatts by the end of 2015 and the using hours of the thermal power generation units will drop futher to about 4 638 hours; and the electric power demand and supply will be in balance in China as a whole, sub-regionally, the North China is deficient slightly in power supply, the East China, Central China and the South China are basically in balance between power demand and supply, while the Northeast and Northwest have some surplus in power supply.

关 键 词：2015年 经济发展 电力需求 电力供应 预测 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]