日本主权债务问题探析  

Aralysis of Japan' s Sovereign Debt Problem

作　　者：黄人杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院

出　　处：《日本研究》2015年第1期12-19,共8页Japan Studies

摘　　要：2013年日本的国债余额达到以1008.6万亿日元、GDP占比为247%,位列世界第一,备受国际瞩目。甚至有学者断言,下一个爆发主权债务的国家必将是日本。因而研究日本的主权债务问题具有迫切性和现实意义。本文回顾了日本的国债发展史,利用跨期预算模型结合相关数据实证检验日本经济所能承受的最大债务规模,并和现实债务规模对比指出其不可持续。本文结合数据和分析,批驳了"日本债务规模可持续"观点的相关论据,给出了日本必将爆发主权债务危机的判断,并分析阐述了对我国的影响及我国的应对之策。In 2013 Japan, with a size of debt of 1008.6 trillion yen and 247% of its GDP, is now ranked as the first in the world. Some scholars even judged that Japan is the next country, who will face sovereign debt crisis. Therefore, the study of Japan＇ s sovereign debt issue is of great importance in theory and practice. This paper looks into the development history and severity of Japanese sovereign debt by horizontal and vertical comparison, and researching the characteristics of Japan＇ s sovereign debt issue from the composition of its creditors. The second part of this paper mainly focuses on the empirical test of the utmost amount of debt that Japanese government can stand by utilizing the inter-temporal budget model in combining with related data, which proves the in-sustainability of Japan＇ s debt. In the last part, by summarizing the above analysis and data, this paper debates with the opinions that supporting the sustainability of Japan＇s debt problem and gives the conclusion that Japan＇s sovereign debt crisis is inevitable. On basis of this conclusion, the paper predicts the possible influence on China, and finds ways and means to cope with Japan＇ s crisis.

关 键 词：主权债务 债务可持续性 财政赤字 外汇储备 

分 类 号：F811[经济管理—财政学]