基于物元模型的航空公司飞行安全风险综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation for the airline flight safety risk based on the matter-elements model

作　　者：唐卫贞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川广汉618307

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第2期25-29,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：提高航空公司飞行安全风险管理水平的关键是对航空公司飞行安全风险的现状进行科学客观的综合评价。在系统分析影响航空公司飞行安全风险因素的基础上,建立了由机组因素、飞机因素、环境因素和飞行管理4个1级指标及26个2级指标组成的航空公司飞行安全风险指标体系,指标体系中各级评价指标的权重由层次分析法确定;由于航空公司飞行安全风险评价具有物元的可拓性,构建了航空公司飞行安全风险评价的多级物元模型。实例演算表明,物元理论能充分地利用航空公司飞行安全风险评价中的指标信息,确定影响航空公司飞行安全风险的主要因素,以便航空公司采取针对性的措施提高飞行安全风险管理水平。The paper is to present its research findings on the com- prehensive evaluation of the airline safety risk based on the known matter-elements model. As we know, the so-called matter-element model is the premise for ensuring the aviation flight safety by doing more effective flight-security evaluation and taking effective mea- sures. For this purpose, we have made a comprehensive study on all kinds of influential faetors that may constitute indispensible factors to guarantee the flight safety in the process of the flight along the airline by making all the conceivable improvements by using the Matter-ele- ments Model. Through analyzing the operational flight safety factors of the airlines and reasons of the flight accidents, this paper has con- strncted a Flight Safety Risk Evaluation System on the basis of the fol- lowing four factors, that is, the aircraft-itself status in-situ, the envi- ronment situation and the flight management. The weight of evaluation index has to be determined by means of the Analytical Hierarchy Pro- cess（AHP）. In this way, the casualness and subjectivity of the weight decision can be fully avoided. It is just to satisfy the air flight safety, we have established a model of flight safety risk evaluation of airline based on matter-elements model. The expert score evaluation can also be used to evaluate the index layer of the flight security of airlines. With this method in hand, we have prepared the correlation degrees of the factor indexes. Thus, the flight safety of the domestic airline can also be evaluated with the given model. As the overall se- curity risk level of the airline is concerned, it is also necessary to guarantee the security risk status of each evaluation index. For this goal, it is urgent that＂ we should strengthen the security precautions, especially, for the safety management and the control of the aircraft. Therefore, the present improved Matter-elements model is in a posi- tion to provide a reference for the comprehensive evaluation for the airline safety base

关 键 词：安全工程 航空公司飞行安全 风险评价 层次分析法 物元模型 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]