1961—2013年广西洪涝灾害时空分布特征及成因  

Analysis on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of flood disasters during 1961-2013 and its causes in Guangxi

作　　者：黎琮炜 覃卫坚[2] 高安宁[3] 

机构地区：[1]广西气象服务中心,南宁530022 [2]广西气候中心,南宁530022 [3]广西气象台,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2015年第1期80-85,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西科技创新能力与条件建设项目(桂科能14123004-1-2);广西自然科学基金(2013GXNSFBB053010);广西自然科学基金资助(2013GXNSFAA019273)共同资助

摘　　要：用广西1961—2013年90个气象观测站的日降水资料和灾害监测资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析广西洪涝灾害时空分布特征及其成因。结果表明:广西洪涝灾害造成的损失严重,受灾面积、受灾人口、死亡人数及倒塌房屋等灾害损失呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代因洪涝灾害导致的各方面损失最严重。洪涝灾害发生概率桂东大于桂西。红水河、柳江、桂江、浔江、郁江、西江流域洪涝灾害与大雨以上量级降水量相关最高,其次为北海、钦州、防城港的独流入海流域。河池和柳州是因强降水最容易造成人员死亡的地区,其次为贺州。三种大气环流形势易引发致洪强降雨,中高纬度的槽脊偏强,低纬度地区副高西伸至华南沿海;西伯利亚低槽偏强,广西受南支槽前控制,利于冷暖空气在广西上空交汇,发生暴雨;副热带高压脊线偏北,西伸脊线偏西,有利于热带气旋西移给广西带来暴雨天气。Based on the daily rainfall data of 90 stations, the flood disaster records in Guangxi and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2010, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and the causes of flood disaster disasters were analyzed. Results show that the flood disasters have an increasing trend with the biggest flood disaster losses happening during the 1990s. Flood more likely occurs in the east of Guangxi than the west. The highest correlation between the flood disaster area and the heavy rainfall in the Hongshuihe river, Liujiang river, Guijiang river, Xunjiang river, Yujiang river and West ri＇~er basin, while the higher ones are in the basin of river running into sea in Beihai, Qinzhou and Fangchenggang. Hechi and liuzhou are the area to most likely cause deaths due to heavy rain, and the kIezhou ranks second. There are three types of circulations that lead to the floods in Guangxi： the groove ridge In the high latitudes become strong, and subtropical high in the low latitudes extending to the west and into the south China coast; stronger Siberian low trough and control of the tbrmer southern trough benefit the interchanges of warm and cold air over the Guangxi and lead to the heavy rain; subtropical ridge line by North and west ridge line by west are advantageous to the westward movement of tropical cyclone and bring torrential rain to Guangxi.

关 键 词：广西 洪涝灾害 气候变化 气候成因 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]