“经济新常态”与中国人口政策的调整  

The “New Normal” and Chinas Population Policy Adjustment

作　　者：苏剑[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与社会》2015年第2期15-18,共4页Population and Society

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国经济经历了三十多年的高速增长,人口红利的释放是非常重要的原因。从日本、韩国、香港、新加坡的发展历程来看,人口红利也同样是"东亚奇迹"的重要原因之一。人口红利体现在劳动力供给充足、国民储蓄率稳步提高、年轻人比例较高、劳动力配置效率较好四个方面,有效地促进了经济的快速增长。随着人口红利的消失,我国即将进入人口负债期,严重的劳动力短缺和老龄化形势推动中国经济进入"新常态",经济的增长受到抑制,取消计划生育政策,转向鼓励生育已经迫在眉睫。The release of the demographic dividend is a very important reason for the rapid growth china＇ s economy in the past 30 years. From the developing processes of Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore, the demographic dividend is also one of the important reasons for the ＂east Asian miracle＂. Demographic dividend embodies the four aspects： adequate labor supply, steady increase of national saving rate , bigger proportion of young people, and high efficiency of labor force allocation, so that it effectively promotes the rapid economic growth. Along with the disappearance of demographic dividend, our country is about to enter a population deficit period, severe labor shortages and the aging population are to promote China＇s economy into the ＂new normal＂, with economic growth being restrained. Hence it is imminent for us to change our family planning policy into birth encouragement .

关 键 词：经济新常态 人口红利 人口负债 计划生育政策 鼓励生育 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]