中国现在还需要限制生育吗?  

Need China Now a Birth Limitation?

作　　者：何亚福 

机构地区：[1]人口与未来网站,香港999077

出　　处：《人口与社会》2015年第2期33-36,共4页Population and Society

摘　　要：一个国家最佳的生育率是保持在世代更替水平附近,这样有利于保持合理的人口结构,也符合十八届三中全会提出的"促进人口长期均衡发展"的目标。当今中国无论是生育率还是生育意愿都远低于更替水平。因此,中国应该适当鼓励生育以便把生育率提高到更替水平附近。世界上许多国家和地区的经验表明,当一个国家或地区的生育率过高时,政府要采取措施降低生育率,这是比较容易做到的。然而,当一个国家或地区的生育率过低时,政府要采取措施鼓励生育,却几乎没有什么效果。A best fertility rate for a nation is to keep it near the generation replacement level, which helps to maintain a reasonable population structure, and also accords with the goal of The Third Plenary Session of the 18th, that is, ＂to promote longterm balanced population development＂, In today＇s China both fertility rate and birth willingness are far below the replacement level. Therefore, the nation should encourage fertility appropriately in order to increase the birth rate near the replacement level. The experience of many countries and regions in the world indicates that when a country or a region＇s birth rate is high, the government should take measures to reduce fertility, which is somewhat easy to do. However, when the government tries to encourage birth because of a rather low fertility level, it can manage little effect.

关 键 词：人口政策 生育率 生育意愿 生育限制 计划生育政策 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]