基于油液分析的装备状态多阶段组合预测模型  

Multi-stage Combination Forecasting Model of Equipment Condition Based on Lubricating Oil Analysis

作　　者：张仕新[1] 昝翔 李浩[1] 韩朝帅 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院,北京100072

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2015年第4期76-80,共5页Fire Control & Command Control

摘　　要：状态预测是状态维修的关键步骤之一。针对装备状态变化规律复杂、特点难易准确掌握的关键问题,以延时时间概念和两阶段预知模型为基础,提出了根据不同阶段特点采用不同预测方法的多阶段组合预测模型。通过油液分析及其相关规定,对装备运行阶段进行了具体划分,给出了适应各阶段特点的预测方法。最后,通过实例验证了该模型的有效性。Condition forecast is one of key steps in CBM （Condition based Maintenance）. Aim to the key question of complicated rule of variation in equipment condition and uncertainty characteristic,rooted in the concept of Delay Time and two-stage forecasting model,multi-stage combination forecasting model based on different characteristics of different stages is presented. Through lubricating oil analysis and correlated prescribing,operation phase of equipment is parted. At the same time,every method adapt to every stage is found. At last,availability of the model is validated through a example.

关 键 词：状态预测 多阶段组合预测 油液分析 

分 类 号：TP307[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]