基于负荷密度指标法的现代城镇电力负荷预测  

The Power Load Forecasting of Modern Town Based on Load Density Method

作　　者：徐亚玲[1] 黄民德[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学控制与机械工程学院,天津300384

出　　处：《天津城建大学学报》2015年第2期139-143,共5页Journal of Tianjin Chengjian University

摘　　要：安全、稳定、充裕的电力网络是现代城镇发展的基础.做好电网规划,首先要进行电力负荷预测.以往负荷密度指标的选取通常采用简单类比和经验判断得到,难以满足精度要求.通过引入模糊贴近度理论,使负荷密度指标的选取更科学精准,并以安徽省某现代城镇电力负荷预测为例,得到负荷密度指标值.实例表明,该方法结构合理,思路清晰,实用性较强.Safe, stable and adequate power network is the foundation of modern towns’ development. However it is the first thing to forecast power load of power planning. Previous the load density index is usually obtained by simple analogy and experience which can hardly meet the accuracy requirements.This article, using the theory of fuzzy nearness, makes the load density index more scientific and accurate. By taking a modern town in Anhui Province as an example of power load fore-casting, the authors calculate the load density index values. Example shows that the method is reasonable, clear, and practical.

关 键 词：电力网络 电力负荷预测 负荷密度指标 模糊贴近度 

分 类 号：TM715.1[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]