旅游发展与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据  

Tourism Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：赵磊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院旅游管理系,浙江杭州310023 [2]浙江工业大学城镇化与城乡休闲研究中心,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2015年第4期33-49,共17页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"新型城镇化背景下我国旅游业影响经济增长的效应;机制与政策研究"(14CGL023);国家旅游局面上项目"新型城镇化与旅游产业耦合过程及对经济增长的影响效应与机制研究"(14TACG025)资助~~

摘　　要：旅游发展与经济增长之间的关系研究一直是旅游经济学研究的核心内容.研究目的旨在经验考察TLGH在中国的成立性以及旅游发展对经济增长的影响效应.首先对国外相关研究文献与国内旅游发展特征事实进行了简单引述,并在此基础上,基于1999-2009年中国省际面板平衡数据,采用多种精细前沿性计量经济方法实证检验中国旅游发展对经济增长的影响过程.实证研究结果表明,中国旅游发展对经济增长具有显著正向影响效应,这一研究结论在经过4种敏感性分析之后依然稳健;未考虑内生性之前,中国旅游发展对经济增长的影响效应存在被低估现象,且最低影响效应大致处在0.0186～0.0354之间,当克服内生性之后,影响效应纠正为0.1519.Tourism development has been long regarded as an important tool facilitating economic growth. Over the past decade, the average expansion rate of the Chinese tourism is 15% in terms of total revenue, if the negative effects of various exogenous wildcard events are taken into account. If these effects are disentangled, the rate reaches as high as 20%, which is far above the average annual economic growth rate of 9.8%. It is no surprise that the status of the tourism in the national economy has gradually strengthened, and as a result, the tourism has become a vital sector boosting the overall economy. From a theoretical perspective, suggested by the pioneering work of Copeland （1991）, Hazari and Sgr6 （1995）, and Lanza and Pigliaru （1995）, the nexus between tourism development and economic growth is the core field in tourism studies. In the above context, the aim of this paper is to examine the Tourism-led Growth （TLG） Hypothesis in China as well as to evaluate the magnitude of tourism＇ s contribution to economic growth. Based on a Chinese dataset, this paper employs econometric analysis that is considered rigorous in mainstream economics to conduct an empirical study of the effect process of tourism development on economic growth. This will unveil the relationship between tourism development and economic growth and practically, will provide a theoretical foundation for the policy implications of sustainable tourism development. First of all, this paper conducts a thorough review of the research literature and introduces the context of tourism development in China. After that, by using various econometric methods, this paper uses China＇ s provincial panel data from 1999 to 2009 to conduct an empirical study of the relationship between tourism development and economic＇ growth. Results show that tourism development imposes a significantly positive influence on economic growth in Chinese provinces, and the conclusion of this paper is robust through four sensitivity tests. When not taking endogen

关 键 词：旅游发展 经济增长 影响效应 实证研究 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] F124[经济管理—产业经济]