基于区域跟踪的增雨效果分析方法新探  

The Analysis of New Assessment Method Based on Region Tracking for Artificial Precipitation Enhancement

作　　者：汪玲[1,2,3] 刘黎平[3] 汪天颖 吴添圆 万丛[6] 刘新建 

机构地区：[1]湖南省人工影响天气办公室,长沙410007 [2]成都信息工程学院,成都610225 [3]中国气象科学院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [4]湖南省气象科学研究所,长沙410007 [5]广东省中山市气象局,中山528400 [6]四川省绵阳市气象局,绵阳621000 [7]河北顺平县气象局,顺平072200

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2015年第1期9-16,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局重点工程项目;气象行业专项(GYHY201106046);十二五国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC22B00)

摘　　要：在高炮催化区跟踪算法基础上,探究了选取等面积同心圆环作为对比区进行人影作业效果物理评估新方案,并给出了该方案适应性判断指标。选取垂直液态含水量和面雨量作为方案检验因子,分析了不同自然降水过程中,不同时间段"催化区"和"对比区"平均物理量的双比值和相对偏差等参量的变化;并以相似离散度为指标,分析该方法的适用范围,分析何种条件下自然降水的"催化区"和"对比区"变化比较一致且小于增雨效果。实验表明:不同自然降水过程中,"催化区"和"对比区"30 min平均垂直液态含水量变化以及3 h平均相对增雨均小于增雨效果,新方案可用于人工增雨效果分析。后提出将综合相似离散度作为判据,当其值大于0.2时,则不采用该方案,判据的增加明显改善了新方案评估效果。Based on the method of tracking the seeding coverage in artificial precipitation enhancement by antiaircraft guns, this study pre- sented ideas of selecting the equal-area concentric rings around the seeding coverage as the contrast area, building the new physical assess- ment for artificial precipitation enhancement and giving adaptive judgment index. We calculated the difference of every physical quantities between ＂the seeding coverage＂ and ＂the contrast area＂ by double ratio and relative deviation and so on during different durations in differ- ent type of natural precipitations with selecting vertical integrated liquid water （VIL） and the area precipitation as test factors. We showed the scope of the new assessment and the specific situations in which the difference of every physical quantities between ＂the seeding cover- age＂ and ＂the contrast area＂ is same as or less than that in artificial precipitation enhancement with considering similar dispersion as an in- dicator. The resuhs showed that in different type of natural precipitations, the average difference of vertical integrated liquid water in 30 minutes and the area precipitation in 3 hours between ＂the seeding coverage＂ and ＂the contrast area＂ were less than that in artificial precip- itation enhancement. Finally, a concept of compensation coefficient of comprehensive similarity dispersion was presented. When its value was less than 0.2, the new assessment is considered valid.. Clearly, the addition of the new criterion greatly improved the effective evalua- tion.

关 键 词：相似离散度 双比值 相对增雨量 效果分析 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]