前期高度场和海温场变化对贵州冬季冻雨的影响  

Impact of the Preceding Northern Himisphere 500hPa Geopotential Height and Pacific SST Variation on the Winter Freezing Rain over Guizhou Province

作　　者：吴战平 严小冬 古书鸿 徐丹丹 周丽娜 

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象局,贵阳550002

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2015年第1期41-47,共7页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目-冬季云贵准静止锋结构特征及其对贵州冻雨天气影响研究(编号:40865003);中国气象局2008年业务建设项目"气象灾害影响预评估技术研发及其应用";中国气象局2009年预警工程项目"低温雨雪冰冻天气对贵州电线结冰影响预评估"

摘　　要：基于1962~2008年贵州84站冬季冻雨日数、前期北半球500h Pa高度场和西北太平洋海温场资料,利用秩序量三因子最佳子集回归法,开展前期高度场和海温场变化对贵州冬季冻雨的影响分析。结果发现：前期两个场共同作为预报因子比把其中某场单独作为预报因子的相关要好,预报因子最佳时段为同年的4~7月,并存在着较好的＂跨季度相关＂现象。影响贵州冬季冻雨的最佳预报因子主要集中于高度场和海温场具有重要天气气候意义的关键区域,如暖池附近以及北美洲东北部等区域。Based on the 84- station freezing rain- day over Guizhou in winter from 1962 to 2008,the preceding height field of 500 h Pa,and SST field of Pacific Ocean,and the three factors optimum subset regression,the impacts are composed by500 h Pa height field and Pacific SST field,and freezing rain field in winter is studied. The results indicate clearly that：（ 1）The correlation between preceding 500 h Pa height- Pacific SST and winter freezing rain- day is better than that of between500 h Pa height and freezing rain- day or between Pacific SST and freezing rain- day field over Guizhou.（ 2） In general,as far as predictors are concerned,the optimum time stages of being possessed of practice prediction significance are from preceding April to July.（ 3） There is an apparent phenomenon that correlation of the cross quarter is good.（ 4） The early predictors of affecting winter freezing rain- day over Guizhou mainly focus on key regions,as well as near the warm pool northeastern North America and other regions,which have importance significance of the weather climate.

关 键 词：500h Pa高度场 海温场 冬季冻雨 最佳子集回归 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]