基于多因素考虑的变压器故障概率模型  

Transformer Failure Probability Model Based on Multiple Factors

作　　者：王浩[1] 谢萍[1] 王颖[1] 赵文硕[1] 廖一鸣[1] 李彦[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,北京100000

出　　处：《计算机与数字工程》2015年第4期635-639,643,共6页Computer & Digital Engineering

摘　　要：变压器在电力系统中意义重大,电力变压器一旦发生故障对电力系统将造成重大损失。在电力行业发展进程中,预防性检修及定期检修已不能满足当前的需要。因此研究基于在线监测的变压器故障诊断技术,获取当前变压器的健康状态,更好地对变压器的运行状况进行维护。综上所述:在线监测的变压器诊断技术对电力系统的安全运行具有非常重要的现实意义。当前的故障概率计算大多是针对可靠性的故障进行计算[1],没有综合考虑运行年限、已发生故障以及维修情况、运行经历等因素。因此得出的故障概率不是很准确,论文将从变压器运行的在线监测数据、运行年限、已发生的故障及维修情况、运行经历综合进行考虑,综合以上因素加权最后得出变压器整体的故障概率。Power transformer is the most important and expensive equipment in the power system, and its fault will cause the accident of power system, With the development of power industry, power transformer is developing in a high ca- pacity and high voltage direction. So the traditional preventive maintenance in the security and economy is unable to meet the current requirements. Researching on transformer fault diagnosis technology based on-line monitoring to monitor and diag- nose latent fault in real-time or regular time and improve the level of transformer operation and maintenance has important practical significance to the safe operation of the power system. The current failure probability calculation is mostly based on the reliability of fault to calculate without considering the operation duration, faults and repair, operation experience and oth- er factors. Therefore the probability of failure is not very accurate. This paper will consider the on-line monitoring data, the operating period, the happened fault , the repair operation, and the operating experience synthetically, and weight the proba- bility of the transformer fault, and finally reach the failure probability of the whole.

关 键 词：变压器 故障概率 多因素 模型 综合 

分 类 号：TM410.3[电气工程—电器]