日本经济增长悖论的反思  

The Paradox of Japanese Economic Growth

作　　者：邢天添[1] 裘豪翔 

机构地区：[1]南开大学财政学系

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2015年第5期71-76,112,共7页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：南开大学基本科研业务费专项资金项目"财政体系改革与经济增长--基于财政分权视角的研究"(NKZXB1425);教育部人文社会学科重点研究基地重大项目"中国国家治理现代化进程及测评体系"(14JJD790035)

摘　　要：日本经济增长的悖论存在制度性根源。日本经济政策在国际经济秩序发生重大变革后,没有做出很好的适应性调整。在布雷顿森林体系瓦解和国际贸易摩擦升级后,日本国内经济开始投机行为盛行,"炼金术"大行其道。高增长的日本经济逐渐演变成泡沫经济。日本经济最终触发"明斯基"时刻,跌入通货紧缩的泥沼。借鉴日本经验,持续发挥中国经济增长的制度优势,有效激发经济增长的新动力,避免日本经济泡沫之路,成功跨越"中等收入陷阱",关系到亿万中国人的福祉,意义重大。中日经济模式比较分析表明,尽管中日经济在增长绩效、管理方式和增长路径上存在高度的相似性,但中国经济不会重蹈日本的覆辙。中国尚存在改革的"时间窗口",有效遏制经济泡沫的蔓延,妥善处理产能过剩、转型升级、房地产泡沫、信贷资产时间错配等核心问题,中国经济增长将进入更加健康的"新常态"。The paradox of Japanese economic growth is based on the special institution. After the change of international economy, the policy of Japanese economic is not justified properly. During the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and international trade friction, it is very popular for speculation and alchemy. Japan＇s high economic growth gradually became into the bubble economy. ＂Minsky moment＂ is triggered in Japan, in which deflation happens. By learning from the lessons of Japan, it is very important for China to keep the institutional advantage and create new economic engine. In this case, ＂middle income trap＂ and economic bubble will be avoided. It is partly similar of growth performance, management method and trace of economic increase between the two countries, but the conclusion of the analysis is Chinese economic will not follow the ＂Japanese recession＂ China still has time for reform, to solve the problems such as overcapacity, transformation and upgrading, real estate bubble, financial reform, and so on, then Chinese economic will last long more healthy.

关 键 词：经济增长 投融资 房地产泡沫 金融改革 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]