铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价  

Risk assessment of the strategic precinct for alumium ore resources' overseas exploitation

作　　者：郑明贵[1] 袁纬芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学矿业贸易与投资研究中心,江西赣州341000 [2]江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《有色金属科学与工程》2015年第2期116-123,共8页Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(12CGL008);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(12YJA790208)

摘　　要：对所投资区域的风险进行评价是进行海外铝矿资源开发的基础性工作.首先,对铝矿资源海外开发战略选区面临的主要风险进行了识别,构建了评价指标体系,并用Delphi法确定权重;将云理论引入到物元理论中,建立了基于云物元理论的铝矿资源海外开发战略选区风险评价模型,并进行了案例应用,利用Matlab软件编程计算了各风险等级的隶属度.研究结果表明:澳大利亚和美国处于"低"风险状态;巴西、印度、圭亚那、哈萨克斯坦处于"较低"风险状态;越南、苏里南和俄罗斯处于"一般"风险状态;几内亚、牙买加、希腊处于"较高"风险状态;委瑞内拉处于"高"风险状态.Evaluating the risk of each investment district is a fundamental work for aluminum resource overseas exploitation. Firstly, the main risks of strategic precinct for aluminum ore resources overseas exploitation is identified, index system is established and Delphi method is used to weight determination. Secondly, by introducing the cloud theory into the matter-element theory, the risk assessment model of the aluminum resources overseas exploitation strategic precinct which is applied through cases is established based on the theory of the cloud and matter-element. Besides, this model calculates the various risk grade of membership degree by using Matlab software programming. The research results show that： Australia and United States are in a state of ＂low＂ risk; Brazil, Guyana, India, Kazakhstan are in a state of ＂relatively low＂ risk; Vietnam, Suriname and Russia are in the ＂general＂ risk statue; Guinea, Jamaica, Greece are in the ＂relatively high＂ risk statue; Venezuela is in the ＂high＂ risk statue.

关 键 词：铝矿 海外开发 云物元 风险评价 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程]