新兴市场资本流动与金融脆弱性:一个三维分析框架  

Capital Flows and Financial Vulnerability in the Emerging Markets: A Threedimensional Approach

作　　者：葛奇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国银行国际金融研究所

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2015年第2期75-91,共17页Financial Regulation Research

摘　　要：全球金融危机以来,国际资本的大量流入推动了新兴市场的经济增长。但这种由外债驱动的增长,使其更易受到发达国家利率、汇率等外部因素的制约,造成金融不稳定。本文从经常账户、外汇储备和对外债务等三个不同的角度探讨上述外部因素对新兴市场的风险传递效应。根据对新兴市场国家的总体和分项脆弱性指标进行的情景分析,本文得出的结论是,如果国际资本流动等金融市场条件发生不利变化,巴西、印尼、俄罗斯、南非和土耳其等五个国家将面临较大的金融风险。Since the global financial crisis, significant capital inflows have led to stronger growth prospects in the emerging markets. This debt-driven growth is vulnerable to the external factors such as interest rate and exchange rate changes of the advanced economies. This paper discusses the risk transmitting effects on the emerging markets from three different channels, current account, foreign exchange reserve and external debt. Based on the general and country-specific analysis of the emerging markets, we argue that in the case of significant retrenchment of capital flows, countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Turkey will be most vulnerable to financial risks.

关 键 词：新兴市场 金融脆弱性 经常账户 外汇储备 对外债务 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]