中国蔬菜生产空间集聚演变、机制、效应及政策应对  

Spatial Evolution, Mechanism, Effect and Policies of Vegetable Production Agglomeration in China

作　　者：吴建寨[1] 沈辰[1] 王盛威[1] 张建华[1] 孔繁涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2015年第8期1641-1649,共9页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41201599)

摘　　要：【目的】近年来,中国"大市场、大流通"的蔬菜供需格局基本形成,蔬菜产业空间布局发生了显著变化。本研究以31个省市为研究单元,系统探讨了1995—2012年中国蔬菜生产的空间集聚演变特征、效应与机制,并提出了应对政策建议,为优化生产布局、有效保障供给提供依据。【方法】基于集中度指数计算蔬菜产量最大的n个省(市/区)占全国蔬菜总产量的份额,基于基尼系数模型测度中国蔬菜生产省级层面的空间集中水平,揭示1995—2012年间中国蔬菜产业空间集聚的变动特征;应用修正的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,建立评估模型,分析蔬菜产业集聚水平、蔬菜价格、单位面积劳动力投入、单位面积资本投入等对蔬菜产值影响的显著性,揭示蔬菜生产聚集对产业发展的影响效应。【结果】研究初期中国蔬菜生产东南聚集、东多西少的空间特征在研究期内发生了显著变化。1995—2012年,西部省份产量比重提高了6个多百分点,东、西部地区产量差距梯度明显减弱;南北方向上,北方省份占全国比重提升了近5个百分点,蔬菜生产向北方转移明显。研究期内,CR4和CR8两个集中度指标均是前期波动并略有提高,后期基本保持稳定并略降,大致在0.4和0.6之间徘徊,两者的最高点分别发生在2001年与2004年,最低是1995年与1997年;基尼系数同样呈先升后降的变化,2004年的0.5045为研究期内最高点,之后逐步下降。蔬菜生产空间集聚的变化是自然、社会、经济等多种要素共同参与导致空间重构的结果,也是蔬菜产业本身优化提升的过程。初期分布格局更加依赖光、温、水、土等自然条件,在演变过程中,科技创新使得自然因素作用降低,经济、政策等层面因素的作用逐渐突出。修正后的效应评估方程通过了F检验,并且具有较高的解释水平,基尼系数在10%的显著性水平下通过了t检验,它每提高1个百分【Objective】 In recent years, vegetable supply and demand pattern characterized by ＂large market, great circulation＂ has been basically formed in China. And the change of the spatial agglomeration in vegetable industry is remarkable. In this paper, the characteristics, effects, and mechanism of the spatial agglomeration evolution in China＇s vegetable production from 1995 to 2012 were systematically discussed by taking 31 provinces（cities） as research units, and the policy suggestions were also proposed. This research will provide a support for optimizing production arrangement and ensuring effective supply. 【Method】 The share of n largest provinces（cities） in total production was calculated based on the index of concentration ratio. In order to reveal the characteristics of spatial agglomeration in vegetable production industry from 1995 to 2012, the spatial concentration on provincial level was measured by using Gini coefficient model. To show the effect of production agglomeration on vegetable industry development, the model based on modified Cobb-Douglas production function was built to analyze the significance of the inputs such as vegetable production agglomeration level, vegetable price, labor per unit, and investment per unit. 【Result】The characteristic of China＇s vegetable production spatial distribution clustered in Southwest, mainly in eastern China, and less in western China at the beginning of the study period was significantly changed in the research period. During 1995 to 2012, the ratio of output in western China increased 6%. The gap gradient in output between eastern and western China diminished obviously. In the vertical direction, the ratio of output in northern China increased 5% which indicated that the gravity of output had moved towards the north. During 1995 to 2012, CR4 and CR8, the two indexes of concentration ratio, were increased slightly with constant fluctuation at first, and were decreased a little to steady state at the later stage, lingering between 0.4

关 键 词：蔬菜生产 空间集聚 机制 中国 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]