信息量模型在地质灾害灾情评估及险情预测中的应用  

Study on the Application of Information Model in Geological Hazards Disaster Assessment and Danger Prediction

作　　者：许林艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南国土资源职业学院数字国土与土地管理学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第14期302-305,325,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：云南省思茅区地质灾害调查与区划项目

摘　　要：云南山区是我国地质灾害重灾区之一,由于人们对自然资源的过度开发,以及人们认识的局限性和落后性,地质灾害已严重威胁到人民生命财产安全和区域经济发展。该研究选取距断层距离、降雨量、坡度、地层岩性、距公路距离、距河流距离、坡向和地质灾害分布现状等8个指标作为危险性评价因子,选取村直接经济损失和村人口伤亡2个灾情因子,选取村潜在威胁人口和村潜在财产损失及村人口密度和村地均户数两组险情因子,运用信息量法,以思茅区为例,在地质灾害危险性评价的基础上,进行地质灾害灾情及险情预测评估。结果表明:用信息量法进行地质灾害危险性及灾情和险情预测评估具有可行性、可靠性、科学性及快速性,用村直接经济损失和村人口伤亡作为灾情因子与村人口密度和村地均户数作为险情因子的评价结果更具普遍意义,值得推广。Yunnan mountainous area is one of the geological hazards worst-hit areas in China, along with excessive development of natural resources, as well as the limitation and backwardness of people＇ s consciousness, geological disasters already seriously threaten the safety of the life and property and regional economical development. Selecting eight factors as geologic hazards risk assessment factors, such as distance to fault, rainfall, slope, lithology, distance to highway, distance to river, aspect and distribution of geological hazards, choosing direct economic losses and population casualties, adopting two group of risk factors village potential population, potential property loss and village population density, village households, using information model, with Simao District as example, on the basis of geological hazards risk assessment, geological hazards and risks were evaluated. The results showed that the results are feasibility, reliability and scientific and rapid by using the information mod- el to make risk and disaster and hidden danger assessment and prediction of geological disasters. The results with using direct economic losses and population casualties per village as disaster evaluation factors and the population density and household density per village as hidden danger factors had more general meaning and worth promoting.

关 键 词：地质灾害 信息量法 危险性评价 灾情评估 险情预测 

分 类 号：S127[农业科学—农业基础科学]