环境规制、技术进步与大气环境质量——基于天津市面板数据实证分析  

Environmental Regulation, Technology Change, and Air Pollution: A Panel Study on Tianjin

作　　者：何为[1] 刘昌义[2] 刘杰[3] 郭树龙[4] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488 [4]天津财经大学商学院,天津300222

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2015年第5期51-61,共11页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：2014年天津市重点调研课题(14-63)

摘　　要：环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说认为环境质量内生于经济增长,忽略了环境规制和技术进步对环境质量的重要影响。提出了"环境政策有效性"假说,并通过对天津市16个区县2006—2013年面板数据构建计量模型,定量研究了经济发展、环境规制、技术进步与大气污染物排放之间的关系。结果表明,天津市各区县工业和全社会SO2、NOx、烟粉尘排放量与收入水平的关系并不显著,而政府环境政策、企业减排技术进步显著地降低了污染物排放,从而证实了这一假说。研究还发现,天津市各污染物基本都处于EKC曲线的上升阶段,整体尚未实现污染物排放的拐点;污染物排放量与工业化进程显著正相关,而当前天津市大多数区县尚处在工业化中后期。未来大气污染治理应着力通过调整工业结构、加快技术进步来降低工业污染排放。The traditional Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） Hypothesis implies that the environment perfor- mance is endogenous with the economic growth, which underestimate the more fundamental role of government en- vironment regulation, technology advance on the transition of pollutant emissions. This paper, however, based on the theory of institution school, raises an ＇Effective Environmental Institution＇ hypothesis, as a complemental hy- pothesis to the EKC theory. And we jin 16 districts （counties） during 2006 try -20 ronment regulation, technology advance, find empirical evidence from Tianjin. Through a panel model on Tian- this paper studies the relationship between the economic growth, envi- its atmospheric pollutants emissions （including both industrial and to- tal SO2, NOx, fume ＆ dusts emissions, and PM10 concentrations）. Results show that there are not significant linka- ges between the GDP per capita and the four pollutant emissions, however, there are negative and significant cor- relation between three main atmosphere pollutants （SOs, NOx, fume ＆ dusts） and the environment regulations （rep- resented as a policy dummy variable）, and induced technology advance （represented as the industrial SO2 scrub ra- tio）. These empirical findings corroborate our hypothesis. Results find that the industrial ratio negatively and signifi- cantly correlated to three pollutants. Furthermore, data shows that most of the districts （counties） are in the inter- mediate or end of the industrialization stage, which means they are still on the rising Environmental Kuznets Curve. Besides that, all four pollutants are highly correlated with its first-order lags. In the future, with the expan- sion of economic scale, and further industrialization, the pressures of pollutants abatement will be much higher. Government and industries sectors should accelerate the industrial structural transition and technology advance to improve the air quality.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 环境规制 技术进步 大气环境 天津市 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]