中国城镇化与农村经济增长关系的动态计量分析  

Dynamic Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Urbanization and Growth of Rural Economy in China

作　　者：刘春霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学生物与农业工程学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《金陵科技学院学报（社会科学版）》2015年第1期27-32,共6页Journal of Jinling Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：基于1980—2011年时间序列数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法实证分析了我国城镇化水平和农村经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明,二者之间存在长期均衡关系,农村经济发展是城镇化水平的格兰杰原因,城镇化对来自农村经济增长的冲击效应较强,而农村经济增长对来自城镇化的冲击效应较弱,城镇化发展对农村经济增长的解释水平仅为8%。The study seeks to empirically analyze dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and growth of rural economy during the years of 1980-2011 in China, by making use of cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that there exists equilibrium relationship between them in a long term. The causality tests further suggest that the rural economic variable Granger-causes the urbanization variable. Furthermore, the results show that the response of urbanization to growth impulse of rural economy is remarkable while the response of growth of rural economy to urbanization impulse is weak, and urbanization impulse can explain the change of growth of rural economy to a certain extent of only 8 % either impulse response function or variance decomposition.

关 键 词：城镇化 农村经济增长 协整检验 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]