新疆与欧亚经济共同体双边贸易流量与潜力——基于引力模型的实证研究  

Bilateral Trade Flow and Potential between Xinjiang and the Eurasian Economic Community: An Empirical Study Based on the Gravity Model

作　　者：龚新蜀[1] 张瑞华[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2015年第3期27-34,共8页International Business Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"欧亚战略合作背景下新疆对外贸易发展方式转变研究"(项目编号:13BJL052)

摘　　要：本文基于2001~2012年的面板数据,运用引力模型,测算了新疆与欧亚经济共同体双边贸易流量与贸易潜力。研究结果表明,贸易伙伴国的GDP、有共同边界、加入上合组织和世贸组织等因素对新疆与欧亚经济共同体双边贸易流量有正向的促进作用,贸易距离和人口规模等因素对双边贸易流量具有负面效应;新疆与哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的双边贸易属于潜力再造型,与欧亚经济共同体和塔吉克斯坦的双边贸易属于潜力开拓型,与俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的双边贸易属于潜力巨大型。In this paper, based on 2001-2012 panel data, using the gravity model of trade, we measure bilateral trade flows and trade potential of Xinjiang and the Eurasian Economic Community. The results show that trading partners＇ GDP, having a common boundary, membership of the SCO and the WTO have positive effect on the bilateral trade flows of Xinjiang and the Eurasian Economic Community while distance and size of population have a negative effect on the bilateral trade flows. Bilateral trade of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan features the potential to form, that of the Eurasian Economic Community and Tajikistan features the potential for exploiting, and that of Russia and Belarus features the huge potential.

关 键 词：贸易流量 贸易潜力 引力模型 欧亚经济共同体 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]